EUR/USD Forecast: Bulls losing interest, yields soaring
EUR/USD Current price: 1.1643
- US Treasury yields posted fresh multi-month highs as stocks hover near record highs.
- US weekly unemployment claims contracted to 290K in the week ended October 15.
- EUR/USD is losing bullish potential, bears will have a chance on a break below 1.1615.
US government bond yields retain control of financial markets, pushing the dollar higher when appreciating and lower when giving up ground. The EUR/USD pair peaked for the day at 1.1666 during Asian trading hours, then pulled back towards the 1.1640 price zone, ahead of US macroeconomic data. At the time being, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note stands at 1.66%, after peaking at a fresh multi-month high of 1.682%.
The US published Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended October 15, which resulted in 290K, improving from 296K in the previous week and beating expectations. The October Philadelphia Fed Survey came in at 23.8, missing the expected 25 and contracting from 30.7 in September.
Generally speaking, the market mood soured as European and Asian indexes trade in the red. On the other hand, Wall Street is poised to open near all-time highs, with futures ignoring the decline in its overseas counterparts. Later in the day, the US will publish September Existing Home Sales, while the EU will release the preliminary estimate of October Consumer Confidence, previously at -4.
EUR/USD short-term technical outlook
The EUR/USD pair keeps trading between Fibonacci levels, meeting sellers around the 38.2% retracement of its 1.1908/1.1523 slide at 1.1670. The daily chart shows that buyers are losing interest, as technical indicators are turning south just above their midlines. At the same time, the pair is developing above a firmly bearish 20 SMA, which stands a few pips below the immediate Fibonacci support level at 1.1615.
The risk is also skewed to the downside in the near term, as the 4-hour chart shows that the Momentum indicator turned firmly bearish and is currently pressuring its midline, while the RSI indicator consolidates at around 56. At the same time, the pair remains above a bullish 20 SMA, a few pips below the current level. The bearish case will be firmer if the pair breaks below the 1.1610 price zone.
Support levels: 1.1615 1.1570 1.1525
Resistance levels: 1.1670 1.1715 1.1750
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Author
Valeria Bednarik
FXStreet
Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.
