Canadian bank ups 2026 Gold forecast to $6,000

Despite the recent selloff, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) remains bullish, forecasting $6,000 gold and $100 silver in 2026.

The Canadian bank significantly upped its gold price forecast from $4,500 in October. CIBC analysts extended their bullish forecast into 2027, projecting an average price of $6,500 next year.

As for silver, the Canadian bank anticipates the average price will peak at $105 this year and then rise to $120 in 2027.

CIBC analysts cited geopolitical uncertainty and safe-haven demand as factors driving gold and silver prices higher, along with the ongoing devaluation of the dollar.

“Dollar debasement is likely to persist as the central banks and investors react to heightened uncertainty by quietly allocating away from U.S. treasuries. We believe further pressure on the dollar will come from rate cuts and continued tension between the Fed and the White House.”

President Trump recently announced Kevin Warsh as his choice for Fed chair. Many analysts believe he will be more hawkish than some other potential nominees; however, he will likely be constrained by realities on the ground. The U.S. economy simply can’t function in a higher interest rate environment due to the massive Debt Black Hole.

CIBC analysts aren’t buying the sales pitch on Warsh, calling him a “dove in hawk’s clothing.”

“Mr. Warsh is seemingly more aligned with a dovish stance than last week’s negative market reaction would imply.”

CIBC analysts note that Warsh may try to shrink the Fed balance sheet so it can cut rates.

“He has argued for tighter Fed balance sheets, which he asserts would tamp inflation and allow for lower rates for Main Street. More recently, he has indicated support for Trump’s government efficiency drive, noting it could temper inflation and allow for lowering of rates.”

It seems unlikely that Warsh will be able to walk that tightrope given falling demand for U.S. Treasuries. Somebody will have to take up the slack to support the U.S. government’s borrow and spend problem. The Fed is the buyer of last resort.

In fact, the Fed has already ended quantitative tightening and announced a modest round of quantitative easing (although it didn’t use that term) at its December meeting.

CIBC analysts bluntly summed up their view of a Warsh Fed chairmanship.

“Regardless, we believe it is unlikely that any candidate would do anything but guide the Federal Reserve Board to lower rates in 2026.”

Even beyond the weakening dollar, CIBC analysts expect a broader “fiat currency debasement trade” to support the price of gold in the coming year. Their grasp of the problems inherent in fiat systems is surprising, coming from a mainstream financial institution.

“With the decades-long de facto safe-haven asset, U.S. Treasuries, no longer considered ‘risk-free,’ investors and central banks are looking for alternatives. The pickings are slim. Most Western economies are facing near-record debt-to-GDP ratios, and most are looking to inflate rather than constrain their way out of the dilemma. Investor confidence in fiat currencies has eroded, and gold has seen much of this flight to safety."