US Dollar Index holds a key decision band as the two-way structure remains active

DXY trades at the ceiling of the lower structure near 97.00–96.73; holding keeps 97.30 in play, while failure risks a rotation back toward 96.54–96.12 and 95.70.

DXY technical and macro context — Feb 10

The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains locked in a two-way structure following its decline from 98.90 (January 19). The selloff phase into late January completed a full rotation into the lower structure, with price finding support near the 95.70 pivot before staging a sharp rebound.

That rebound initially carried constructive implications. DXY accelerated through the 97.30 central pivot (CP), signalling that the market was willing to revisit the mid-range reference after defending the lower floor. However, the recovery failed to transition into a sustained upper rotation. Momentum faded into last week’s trade, with price stalling near 97.95, and the index subsequently lost footing back under the central pivot at the start of this week.

A brief macro note helps frame the tone, but the chart remains the primary driver. Recent trade has been consistent with a mildly USD-negative backdrop, where softer yields and less restrictive rate expectations can weigh on the dollar at the margin. Still, the desk priority is alignment: macro context is only useful when it matches the structure, price is respecting

Where DXY is trading now: the lower-ceiling decision band

As of this February 10 update during the New York session, DXY is trading at the ceiling of the lower structure (97.00–96.73). This band is the immediate decision zone because it sits between a continued lower-structure rotation and another attempt to reclaim the central pivot.

Levels that define the next rotation

Bull case (acceptance and recovery attempt):
If DXY holds 97.00–96.73 and shows acceptance, the structure supports another test of 97.30 (CP). Reclaiming the CP is the minimum requirement for the recovery narrative to regain traction. A clean hold above 97.30 would bring the 97.95 area back into focus as the next upside magnet, defined by last week’s stall and the prior loss of momentum.

Bear case (rejection and continuation within the lower structure):
If DXY fails to hold 97.00–96.73, the structure suggests the market is rotating lower again rather than rebuilding above the pivot. In that case, the next area to monitor is the 96.54–96.12 pocket. A deeper continuation would place the 95.70 pivot back in play as the broader lower reference that previously marked the floor of the late-January selloff.

Outlook

The working assumption remains two-way trade until price proves otherwise. The market has already shown it can rotate upward from 95.70, but it has also shown hesitation at 97.95 and weakness back under 97.30. For that reason, the cleanest read is state-dependent:

• Reclaim and hold above 97.30: supports a recovery attempt toward 97.95
• Remain below 97.30 and lose 97.00–96.73: keeps the lower-structure rotation active, with 96.54–96.12 and 95.70 as the next downside references

Structure defines context; price reveals response.

These desk updates document a structure-first process, observing how price accepts or rejects predefined levels over time. Coverage spans futures, commodities, forex, bonds, crypto, stocks, and indices, with structure providing context before direction. This observation is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Structure defines context; price reveals response.