AUD/USD Forecast: Aussie rebounds as attention turns to the RBA

Matías Salord FXStreet

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6723

RBA to announce monetary policy decision on Tuesday.
US Dollar weakened after last week's rally as commodity prices bounced.
The AUD/USD rebounded from weekly lows, back above 0.6700.

The AUD/USD rose on Monday after falling during the previous three days, and climbed back above 0.6700, boosted by risk appetite and higher commodity currencies. The US Dollar performed mixed as US Yields moved sideways. The next key event for the pair is the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision.

Australia reported on Monday softer Private Sector Credit data for June with an increase of 0.2%, below the expectation of a 0.4% increase, with the annual rate slowing from 6.2% to 5.5%. The Chinese official July PMI came in at 49.3, below the market consensus of 48.9, and the non-manufacturing at 51.1, against 52.3 of the previous month. The Caixin Manufacturing is due on Tuesday. More evidence of a slowdown suggests that more stimulus is likely during the next months. Those stimulus hopes offer some support to the Aussie and to market sentiment.

The RBA is expected to raise its key interest rate on Tuesday by 25 basis points to 4.35%. However, many analysts look for the RBA to keep rates unchanged, in line with what the interest rate market shows. Since the July meeting, when the bank kept rates unchanged, inflation slowed but is well above the target, and the labor market remains hot.

Whatever happens from the RBA will likely have an impact on the Australian Dollar. If the RBA keeps rates unchanged, it could be a hawkish hold. Whatever the decision is, the bias will remain toward more tightening. On Friday, the central bank will release the Statement on Monetary Policy, including new macroeconomic forecasts.

On Monday, the US Dollar dropped versus antipodean currencies, amid higher commodity currencies and some risk appetite. Starting on Tuesday, with the JOLTS reports, relevant US labor market data is the key focus in the US for the week, with the highlight being the official employment report on Friday. Ahead of those numbers, the greenback lost momentum on Monday after last week's rally following stronger-than-expected economic data.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

The rebound for the AUD/USD lost momentum at the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which stands at 0.6740. The pair pulled back modestly then, adhering to the majority of the daily gains. The rebound is important for the Aussie, as it moved away from the key support area seen near 0.6600; that, if broken could trigger an acceleration to the downside. Price stands at the average of the last five months, with the daily chart offering mixed signs and a slightly bearish bias.

On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD rose back above the 20-day SMA and is holding above the 0.6720 area, that suggests it could mark fresh highs over the next hours. A slide below would point to a consolidation between 0.6695 and 0.6720. On the upside, the key resistance is 0.6750, with a break higher opening the doors to more gains. The next resistance to consider stands at 0.6790. On the flip side, below 0.6690, the bearish pressure will likely intensify, exposing the 0.6645 area; below that, the focus turns to 0.6600.

Support levels: 0.6695 0.6645 0.6600

Resistance levels: 0.6750 0.6795 0.6820

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

Author

Matías Salord

FXStreet

Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.

AUD/USD turns lower toward 0.7000 after mixed Australian jobs data

AUD/USD is losing ground toward 0.7000 in the Asian session on Thursday, following the release of the Australian August jobs report, which showed that the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.6% versus 4.5% expected, while Employment Change beat estimates, arriving at 39.5K. Traders also remain unnerved ahead of the critical Trump-Xi meeting.

USD/JPY keeps the red near 158.00 as Japanese Yen firms up

USD/JPY retreats from three-week highs and holds losses near 158.00 in the Asian session on Thursday. Surging Japanese bond yields lift the Yen amid looming intervention risks, while the US Dollar preserves overnight gains to a two-month high amid hawkish Fed bets and elevated US bond yields.

Gold bounces off lows, still below $4,300

Gold builds on Wednesday’s retracement, briefly slipping back below $4,250 per troy ounce to attempt a lacklustre rebound afterwards. The better tone in the US Dollar, rising US Treasury yields and expectation of extra rate hikes by the Fed continue to weigh on the precious metal in the latter part of Thursday’s NA session.

XRP is flashing three bullish signals heading into a historically weak October

XRP (XRP) is still flashing 3 bullish signals across its holders, derivatives, and ETF data. These signals come as the token gave back part of its September gains on Thursday. The token traded near $1.50 at press time, down about 6.3% over 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto Markets data. The pullback still leaves XRP up over 15.6% on the week, a gain that tracks a broader market rally.

Advanced economies: From one example of resilience to another

History tends to repeat itself in advanced economies. Once again, growth ultimately fell short of expectations by only a small margin in the first half of 2026, despite the conflict in Iran. As early as 2025, the impact of tariffs was less severe than feared.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.