XRP is flashing three bullish signals heading into a historically weak October

XRP (XRP) is still flashing 3 bullish signals across its holders, derivatives, and ETF data. These signals come as the token gave back part of its September gains on Thursday.

The token traded near $1.50 at press time, down about 6.3% over 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto Markets data. The pullback still leaves XRP up over 15.6% on the week, a gain that tracks a broader market rally.

XRP (XRP) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Markets

Year-long XRP holders are still underwater

The first signal comes from wallets that have held XRP over the past year. The altcoin’s 365-day market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio sits near -11.75%, according to data from Santiment. A negative reading means the average wallet active over that period sits at a loss.

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Chainlink (LINK) hover slightly over 0%, while Dogecoin (DOGE) sits deeper at -19.26%.

According to Santiment, a low MVRV tends to limit downside because fewer holders have profits to take. XRP holders stayed in the red after last week's rebound. 

“Buying during that pain has historically offered better long-term setups,” the post read.

365-Day MVRV Ratio of Major Coins. Source: X/Santiment

Futures traders return in numbers last seen in January

While long-term holders nurse losses, futures traders have started adding exposure again. XRP futures open interest (OI) on Binance has climbed to nearly $600 million, a January-level reading. 

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost flagged the jump. OI tracks the value of futures contracts still open.

OI has also broken decisively above its 180-day moving average near $445 million. Darkfost read this as speculation returning after months of muted activity. Positive funding rates, he added, suggest buyers are driving the build-up.

“This return of positive sentiment on XRP's derivatives markets is therefore an encouraging signal for the current momentum. That said, it's worth keeping in mind that OI remains dangerous in case of excess. That's not the case today,” the analyst added.

XRP ETF buyers keep showing up every week

Lastly, demand for XRP's spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has held steady. The funds have drawn net inflows every week since mid-July, SoSoValue data shows. That streak now covers 11 weeks, including the current week through September 23.

Bitcoin and Ethereum funds lacked that consistency. Bitcoin ETFs posted outflows in 3 of those weeks, including $462.7 million in the week ending September 11. Ethereum products lost $140 million in the week ending September 18.

The XRP inflows are smaller, however. Most weeks brought in between $1 million and $20 million, although the week ending August 28 drew $110.5 million. Cumulative net inflows have now climbed to $1.75 billion.

Weekly XRP, BTC, and ETH ETF Net Flows. Source: SoSoValue/BeInCrypto

Two signals keep the bulls in check

Not every measure of US demand has kept pace with the ETFs, however. XRP's Coinbase premium over Binance has narrowed to about 0.0055%, CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain noted. Traders often read that premium as a gauge of US spot buying.

A sustained premium would point to stronger demand on Coinbase, and the current gap shows none yet.

The calendar adds a second caution, with October only a week away. XRP has closed October lower in 8 of 13 years, averaging a -5.14% monthly return, CryptoRank data shows. The token also fell 11.9% last October.

XRP Monthly Returns. Source: CryptoRank

XRP therefore heads into a historically soft month with 3 signals leaning bullish. Whether Coinbase spot buyers join ETF investors could decide how much of that strength holds.