AUD/USD analysis: risk to turn south on a break below 0.7740
AUD/USD Current price: 0.7762
- AUD/USD rally rejected around 0.7800, key resistance at 0.7820.
- Light macroeconomic calendar in Asia to leave currencies moving alongside with sentiment.
The AUD/USD pair closed the week with solid gains at 0.7762, reaching on Friday a 5-week high of 0.7809. The Aussie got boosted by Chinese trade data released at the beginning of the day, as despite the total trade balance in dollar terms surprised with a deficit of $4.98B, well below the expected surplus of $27.2B, imports soared by 14.4% in March, more than doubling the previous 6.3%. The pair, however, was unable to hold on to gains as risk sentiment turned negative during the second half of the day. The Australian macroeconomic calendar will be light at the beginning of the week, with the country just releasing January New Motor Vehicle Sales. From a technical point of view, the pair has settled above a major Fibonacci level, the 61.8% retracement of its December/January rally at 0.7740 at the beginning of the week, and held above It afterward, interrupting the previous bearish trend, although a bottom has not been confirmed. Daily basis, the pair settled above its 20 DMA, the Momentum heads north within positive territory while the RSI consolidates around 54, favoring an upward extension, particularly on a break above 0.7820 the 50% retracement of the mentioned rally. In the 4 hours chart, the pair presents a neutral stance, ending the day around a flat 20 SMA and with technical indicators having retreated to neutral territory. Below the mentioned Fibonacci support, a risk-off lead move could send the pair to challenge the 0.7700 figure.
Support levels: 07740 0.7700 0.7765
Resistance levels: 0.7785 0.7820 0.7850
Author
Valeria Bednarik
FXStreet
Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.
