Morning briefing: The DXY can decline towards 96.00-95.50 with upside capped at 97.50

The DXY can decline towards 96.00-95.50 with upside capped at 97.50. EURUSD can attempt to rise towards crucial resistance near 1.20 while above 1.18 while . EURINR can test support at 106 and bounce back towards 109-110. EURJPY has support near 180 from where a rebound can take the pair back to 184/186 in the medium term while USDJPY can fall towards support near 151 before rebounding to 156. USDCNY can drift toward crucial support at 6.85. The Aussie can target 0.7150-0.7200 while the Pound needs to sustain above 1.37 to head toward 1.38+ levels. USDINR can remain ranged within the 90.30-91.00 region for now with scope for a rise to 91.25/91.50 in the coming weeks.

The US Treasury yields have risen back well after the jobs data release. The US added 130K jobs to its NFP. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. If the bounce in the yields sustain, further rise is possible. Broadly, the yields can oscillate in a range and can move up within it. The German yields have come down to their supports as expected. Failure to bounce back from here can drag them further lower from here. The 10Yr GoI is also at its intermediate support. We expect a rise from here. However, a little extended fall cannot be avoided before the expected rise happens in case the yield breaks the support from here. We will have to wait and watch.

Global equities are holding firm with a mildly positive bias. The Dow needs a sustained move above 50500 to target 52000. DAX must break above 25000 to avoid a dip towards 24800–24500. Nifty remains bullish for 26000–26500 despite a slight dip. Nikkei is advancing towards 58000–58500, while Shanghai stays positive to test 4200 before a corrective pullback towards 4100–4000.

Brent and WTI tested recent highs but need to break above $70 and $66 respectively to gain fresh momentum, otherwise they may remain range-bound within $70–$66 and $66–$62. Gold must sustain above $5100 to target $5300–$5500, failing which it risks a decline towards $4800–$4700. Silver faces resistance near $90 that could limit the rise and drag it towards $70–$65. Copper needs a firm move above $6.00 to extend higher towards $6.20–$6.40. Natural Gas has rebounded from support with scope to rise towards $3.30–$3.50 as long as that support holds.