After a year of significant milestones, we look at whether market sentiment is turning bearish and what it means for traders.

The 2025 crypto market is a story in two parts. The year opened with strength: a broad-based rally pushed prices higher, supported by real-world asset tokenization and a surge in stablecoin activity. For a while, digital assets looked firmly on track to stay in the financial mainstream. But the roar has faded.

The second half of the year brought slower markets and sharper corrections that tested even experienced traders. As we approach year-end, the tone has shifted from the springtime optimism to a more cautious observation. The question is no longer “how high can it go?” but “is this cycle losing power?”

Reading the market's mood

Sentiment remains the strongest crypto driver. In 2025, it swung between optimism and caution. Positive news, such as technological advancements and growing adoption, often fuels optimism. For instance, the approval of bitcoin and ethereum spot ETFs earlier in the year was a significant driver of positive sentiment.​

However, sentiment is fragile. It is influenced by a range of factors, including media reports, regulatory news, and broader economic conditions, such as inflation and interest rate changes. A prolonged drawdown can quickly flip the market toward profit-taking and then to fear.

CFD traders who navigate these shifts successfully often rely on platforms that provide stability. For those trading major crypto CFD pairs like BTCUSD, consistent performance is key. Exness offers stable spreads on BTCUSD 99.98% of the time,1 which are over four times more stable than the industry average.​2

The institutional factor

The role of institutional investors in the crypto market has grown significantly in 2025. Major financial players have shown increased interest, viewing digital assets as a tool for diversification and a source of potential high returns. In the US alone, institutional inflows reached 3.2 billion USD, signaling a resurgence of confidence in assets such as bitcoin and ethereum. Public companies have also increased their bitcoin holdings substantially since last year.​

While this influx brings liquidity and a sense of legitimacy, the market is still in the early stages of institutional adoption. Retail investors remain the dominant force. The strategies of large institutions, which often involve substantial purchases, can increase market concentration, creating pockets of volatility that smaller traders must navigate.

“Institutional capital doesn't just chase returns; it signals a fundamental re-evaluation of asset classes on a global scale. We are seeing a quiet but significant shift where digital assets are being integrated into larger economic strategies, not just as a hedge against inflation, but as a component of future financial architecture. The flow of institutional money is less about short-term price and more about a long-term stake in a new economic paradigm,” states Van Ha Trin, Exness Financial Market Strategist.

So while institutional money adds depth, it also raises the bar for execution quality. Traders need brokers that can maintain stable spreads when large orders enter the market.

Regulatory winds of change

Regulation has been the other big talking point of 2025. Authorities are moving from observing to structuring.

In July, the US House of Representatives passed a measure to create a clearer regulatory framework for stablecoins. Similar efforts are underway in the EU, Asia, and parts of Africa, each with its own emphasis, but all moving toward more transparency and supervision.

These regulatory shifts are a double-edged sword. On one hand, clear regulations can foster trust and encourage wider adoption from both retail and institutional investors. On the other hand, unfavorable rules or the threat of strict enforcement can create uncertainty and negatively impact prices.

For CFD traders, this means one thing: they need an environment where they keep control of their positions. This is one of the reasons why Exness provides tools like Negative Balance Protection, ensuring that traders can never lose more than they have in their balance, a crucial feature in a market known for its volatility.​

Learning from market cycles

Crypto has always moved in cycles: expansion, euphoria, correction, reset, and that rule is not about to be broken in 2025. What’s changing is what drives those cycles—we’re now seeing a stronger link with monetary policy, regulatory competition between regions, and the pace of real-world asset infrastructure development.

"Crypto market cycles are often viewed through the narrow lens of price, but they are increasingly reflecting broader geoeconomic tensions and opportunities. We're seeing correlations with shifts in monetary policy, regulatory posturing between economic blocs, and even energy politics. These are no longer isolated digital asset fluctuations. They are part of a larger conversation about the future of finance and where global influence will reside," Van Ha Trinh expresses.

That’s where trading conditions become a strategic edge. During periods of high volatility, wide or unstable spreads can erode profit and loss (P&L) more than the market move itself. A broker that can maintain tight and stable spreads, even during busy market conditions, gives traders more room to execute their strategies.

In light of these stable spreads, Exness has reduced ETHUSD spreads by 67%, saving traders on transaction costs.3 And because control matters beyond execution, 98% of Exness withdrawals are processed automatically, giving traders instant access to their funds whenever the market moves, day or night.4

​So, has the 2025 crypto bull run lost its steam?

Not necessarily, but it has matured. The market is now more sensitive to regulation, more influenced by institutional behavior, and more demanding of trading infrastructure. That doesn’t kill opportunity. It just rewards traders who operate on platforms that remain stable when sentiment doesn’t.

1 Stable spreads for BTCUSD CFDs on the Standard account remained at their minimum levels for over 99.98% of the time, from 23 June to 3 July 2025.

2 4x more stable spreads claim refers to maximum BTCUSD CFDs spreads on the Exness Pro account, based on data collected from 12 to 25 May 2025, compared with average maximum BTCUSD CFDs spreads across the tightest commission-free accounts of eight other brokers.

3 67% reduced ETHUSD spreads claim refers to a spread reduction on ETHUSD CFDs on Standard accounts, comparing spreads from 22 June 2025 to 30 June 2025 relative to the 2024 November average.

4 At Exness, over 98% of withdrawals are processed automatically. Processing times may vary depending on the chosen payment method.