- WTI bulls take a breather at the weekly top after rising the most in a month.
- Softer US Dollar, risk-on mood and firmer China data allow Oil buyers to stay hopeful.
- Surprise building in EIA inventories, hopes of no OPEC+ supply cuts prods Oil buyers.
- US NFP, risk catalysts eyed for clear directions, USD moves are the key.
WTI crude oil fades upside momentum around $70.00 during early Friday in Asia, after rising the most in one month the previous day. In doing so, the Oil price portrays the typical pre-NFP positioning of the markets while also justifying the price-negative catalysts from the energy industry. However, risk-on mood, softer US Dollar and expectations of the delay in the Fed rate hike seem putting a floor under the Oil price.
The US Dollar weakness is the biggest catalyst to favor the Oil buyers. That said, US Dollar Index (DXY) seesaws around 103.56 after a 0.65% daily fall marked on Thursday, the most in a month, to reverse from the highest levels since mid-March.
That said, the United States Treasury bond yields also refreshed the weekly lows as the market’s pricing of the Fed rate hike dropped. Adding strength to the DXY could be mixed US data and receding hopes of a faster Fed rate hike, as well as firmer data from China and passage of the US debt ceiling agreement in the US House of Representatives.
Elsewhere, a surprise build in the weekly inventories reported by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), 4.488M for the week ended on May 26, versus -1.386M expected and -12.456M prior, weigh on the Oil prices.
On the same line are the concerns that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, known as the OPEC+, are unlikely to deepen supply cuts at their ministerial meeting on Sunday despite a fall in oil prices toward $70 per barrel, four sources from the alliance told Reuters.
Amid these plays, the Oil buyers are likely to wait for more clues to witness further upside.
Looking forward, developments surrounding the US bill to avoid default may entertain the Oil traders ahead of the US jobs report for May. forecasts surrounding the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to ease to 190K from 253K prior while the Unemployment Rate is also expected to increase to 3.5% from 3.4%.
Technical analysis
Unless crossing a descending resistance line from April 12, around $72.65 by the press time, WTI remains off the buyer’s table.
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