WTI falls to near $61.00 as traders expect OPEC+ to increase Oil output
- WTI Oil price depreciates due to increased oversupply threats.
- The OPEC+ may increase output by an additional 411,000 barrels per day for July this week.
- Oil demand struggles due to rising US economic concerns, driven by the 'Sell America' sentiment.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price remains subdued for the second successive session, trading around $61.10 per barrel during the early European hours on Tuesday. Crude Oil prices depreciate as the OPEC+, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, could decide to raise output by an additional 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) for July at a meeting scheduled this week. The group may also reverse the remaining 2.2 million bpd voluntary production cut by the end of October, per Reuters.
On Monday, three sources within the OPEC+ group told Reuters that eight country members of the OPEC+, who pledged additional voluntary cuts, could meet on May 31. These members had already agreed to accelerate Oil output increases for a second month in June. OPEC+ is likely to decide output quotas in an online ministerial meeting on May 28, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said.
Additionally, the outlook for the Oil demand faces uncertainty amid growing concerns over the US economy. The 'Sell America' theme dampens the US markets’ sentiment, driven by Moody’s downgrading the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. The credit agency cited surging United States’ (US) debt levels and Washington’s persistent gridlock over budget deficit solutions as an explanation for downgrading its US credit rating for the first time since 1917,
US President Donald Trump's “One Big Beautiful Bill” is set to be voted on in the Senate. The Bill is expected to raise the deficit by $3.8 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The Bill’s provisions, including tax cuts, spending increases, along raising the debt ceiling, could worsen US government finances and increase the risk of bond yields staying higher for longer. Higher bond yields can keep borrowing costs higher for consumers, businesses, and governments in the US, the largest Oil consumer, which is not good for crude demand.
The downside of the Oil prices could be restrained due to easing trade tension between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) improves the traders’ risk appetite. After Friday’s threat, Trump stepped back and decided to extend the tariff deadline on the European Union (EU) after having a phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday. On Monday, the EU agreed to accelerate negotiations with the United States (US) to avoid a transatlantic trade war.
On Tuesday, US Durable Goods Orders, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report are scheduled to be released. Later this week, the release of the latest FOMC Minutes on Wednesday and the PCE inflation data on Friday will be gauged by market participants to gain fresh insights into the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Akhtar Faruqui
FXStreet
Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.
