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WTI bears take control at the start of the week, bucking the trend

  • WTI drifts back to the dynamic trendline support on the 4-hour time frame. 
  • The monthly chart is reaching into resistance and a correction could be on the cards. 

The price of oil continues to consolidate the daily bullish trend and on Monday, the price has melted to the 4-hour dynamic support. At the time of writing, WTI is down 0.26% into the close on Wall Street. The price fell from a high of $69.97 to a low of $68.95.  

Chinese data showed crude oil imports fell to a year's low in May and likely played into the fragility of oil prices following a fun to two-year highs the prior work.

Crude has risen for two weeks, with Brent up by 38% this year and WTI rising 43% on the expectations of improved demand and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and ally producers keeping supply curbs in place has otherwise been a lift for the market.

Meanwhile, on Monday, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said OPEC+ expects inventories to fall further in the coming months.

All in all, increased global demand is anticipated following decisions by the United States and Europe to loosen COVID-19 restrictions.

Additionally, India has begun to ease its latest lockdown.

''A global vaccination rollout is set to drive mobility sharply higher this summer, in response to massive pent-up demand,'' analysts at TD Securities explained.

''Ultimately, the global market will be able to absorb the additional barrels, and strong summer demand could translate into higher prices before OPEC+ increases the flow of spare capacity returning to the market.

This suggests that a break north of $70/bbl may prove unsustainable, given the massive scale of spare capacity, but the set-up for a summer breakout continues to firm. CTAs remain well-positioned for further upside.''

WTI technical analysis

Technically, the 4-hour 10-EMA  keeps the price supported on Monday as it rides the dynamic trendline. 

However, according to the monthly chart, a correction might be on the cards before long. The prior weekly highs have a confluence with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 65.611 at this point.  

Author

Ross J Burland

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

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