Will MicroStrategy join the S&P 500? Big bets, bigger risks

Josh Mandell is fully confident that MicroStrategy (MSTR) will be added to the S&P 500, but analysts and Redditors aren’t so sure — mainly due to its deep ties to Bitcoin.

Despite Mandell’s 100% certainty about MSTR’s inclusion in the S&P 500, not everyone is convinced. A detailed Reddit analysis from June 2025 casts doubt on this possibility, pointing to the company's heavy exposure to Bitcoin as a red flag for institutional gatekeepers. This split highlights the growing divide between retail enthusiasm and the cautious stance of traditional finance.

MicroStrategy’s market performance has shown strength, with its multiple of net asset value (mNAV) reaching 2.1 as of May 2025, according to Yahoo Finance. This suggests growing investor confidence in its Bitcoin-centric strategy. However, no formal or peer-reviewed data confirms it meets the S&P 500’s strict inclusion criteria.

While S&P 500 additions often follow a period of strong market cap growth and consistent stability, MSTR’s recent price swings — including allegations of manipulation and short-selling from August 15 — could hold it back unless the company makes moves to stabilize. Mandell seems to believe such steps are already in motion.

If MSTR is included, analysts expect $10 billion in inflows from passive index funds, with speculative trading potentially boosting that figure to $15–25 billion, according to FX Leaders and analyst Woo. As of August 18, there’s been no official word from the S&P committee — so for now, it’s all speculation.