Wild opex and three black crows

Monica Kingsley Monicakingsley

Ever since Wednesday, Nasdaq found no respite with very few S&P 500 sectors providing refuge. Even Russell 2000 – one of my key picks for clients after CPI – started to undergo a healthy correction off very overbought levels. The fundamental backdrop of rates going lower and USD to ultimately follow suit too, has not changed – but the path main indices are taking, warrants a pause for the bulls.

Also during Friday‘s opex and no key data releases, the momentum was down (it wasn‘t about MSFT-CRWD fallout) and market breadth improvements were insufficient. Next week, GDP and core PCE are the key macro turning points – I‘m sharing the weekly path ahead for indices in the premium section. Till then, we have just earnings and crucially guidance to rely on – and the ASML, TSM, AMZN with quite some financials were telling already.

Whoever guides lower or just barely meets expectations, isn‘t rewarded – and while some domestic oil companies are waking up, there can be no sustained push higher unless tech / financials lead. For now, earnings ahead aren‘t broadly questioned and rate cuts are celebrated – for now, we have to look at other leaders and take advantage intraday whether in futures or options.

Author

Monica Kingsley

Monicakingsley

Monica Kingsley is a trader and financial analyst serving countless investors and traders since Feb 2020.

AUD/USD hits nine-week lows below 0.7000 on RBA Bullock's remarks

AUD/USD reverses a brief uptick and turns lower to hit nine-week lows below 0.7000 in the European morning on Tuesday, as traders digest cautious remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock during the press conference. Earlier on, the RBA raised the cash rate to 4.60%, as widely expected, leaving the door open to further rate hikes if needed.

USD/JPY consolidates near 157.50 as a bullish USD counters intervention risks

USD/JPY struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from a one-week low, consolidating around 157.50 in the Asian session on Tuesday. Trump's concerns about the Japanese Yen's weakness fueled speculation about another US-Japan joint intervention. This, along with the hawkish BoJ, underpins the JPY and caps the currency pair. Meanwhile, rising Fed rate-hike bets and oil-driven inflation fears continue to push US bond yields to multi-year highs, keeping the US Dollar pinned near a two-month high and supporting the pair.

Gold trims gains; back toward $4,150

Gold now surrenders some of its initial advance and retests the $4,150 zone per troy ounce on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the move higher in the yellow metal comes despite the firmer US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields across the board, while escalating geopolitical tensions appear to limit the downside potential.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP correct upward amid declining ETF inflows

The cryptocurrency market upholds a neutral-to-bullish bias on Tuesday, with Bitcoin edging closer to a breakout above $84,000. Altcoins mirror BTC’s outlook, with Ethereum holding above $2,700 and Ripple pushing past the reclaimed $1.50 level.

RBA recap: Rate hikes are on the table as demand stays too strong

The Reserve Bank of Australia unanimously tightened monetary policy, warning that inflation remained too high and that several upside risks had begun to materialise. Governor Michele Bullock said the Board would raise rates again if necessary.

Silver is more volatile than Gold ahead of PCE and NFP. This chart shows the positioning gap

The market’s attention is focused on American data this week, but there’s something only those with a trained eye may be looking at: Gold and Silver positioning gap. Financial markets are moving on fears, mostly related to persistently high energy prices driven by the Middle East war. Sure, the US Dollar (USD) is strong, but at what cost?