Wild opex and three black crows

Monica Kingsley Monicakingsley

Ever since Wednesday, Nasdaq found no respite with very few S&P 500 sectors providing refuge. Even Russell 2000 – one of my key picks for clients after CPI – started to undergo a healthy correction off very overbought levels. The fundamental backdrop of rates going lower and USD to ultimately follow suit too, has not changed – but the path main indices are taking, warrants a pause for the bulls.

Also during Friday‘s opex and no key data releases, the momentum was down (it wasn‘t about MSFT-CRWD fallout) and market breadth improvements were insufficient. Next week, GDP and core PCE are the key macro turning points – I‘m sharing the weekly path ahead for indices in the premium section. Till then, we have just earnings and crucially guidance to rely on – and the ASML, TSM, AMZN with quite some financials were telling already.

Whoever guides lower or just barely meets expectations, isn‘t rewarded – and while some domestic oil companies are waking up, there can be no sustained push higher unless tech / financials lead. For now, earnings ahead aren‘t broadly questioned and rate cuts are celebrated – for now, we have to look at other leaders and take advantage intraday whether in futures or options.

Author

Monica Kingsley

Monicakingsley

Monica Kingsley is a trader and financial analyst serving countless investors and traders since Feb 2020.

GBP/USD hits multi-week tops around 1.3560

GBP/USD gathers fresh steam and advances to new three-month peaks near the 1.3560 zone on Friday. Cable’s sharp move higher comes after three daily drops in a row and follows the increasing selling pressure hurting the Greenback.

EUR/USD pops to fresh two-month highs, targets 1.1600

EUR/USD advances markedly, revisiting the upper 1.1500s for the first time since mid-June. The pair’s sharp uptick comes on the back of a strong retracement in the US Dollar amid BoJ intervention chatter and despite steady uncertainty in the Middle East.

Gold picks up pace, approaches $4,400

Gold rebounds toward the $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Friday, reversing the previous day’s pullback. The precious metal’s recovery comes as fresh and intense weakness keep weighing on the US Dollar, while traders keep assessing easing expectations of an imminent Fed interest rate hike and the situation from the Middle East.

Pi Network Price Forecast: PI extends consolidation as bulls eye $0.10

Pi Network (PI) price holds steady on Friday, maintaining a consolidating tone for three consecutive days. Mild retail strength in the PI token remains stable, with Open Interest above $9 million, while social buzz eases. PI token’s technical outlook is mixed, as bearish momentum wanes to neutral, with bulls eyeing the $0.1000 psychological level.

Weekly focus: Some relief in US inflation concerns

Actual inflation data for July came out as expected with a 0.1% m/m increase in headline CPI and 0.2% excluding food and energy. Annual headline inflation remains too high at 3.4% and means that wage earners are experiencing stagnating spending power at best, and core inflation is a bit higher than the inflation target of two percent would suggest.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.