US monthly jobs report overview
Friday's US economic docket highlights the release of the closely watched US monthly jobs data, popularly known as NFP. The report is scheduled to be released at 13:30 GMT and economists anticipate that hiring might have picked up again in February. The US economy is anticipated to have added 182K new jobs in February and the unemployment rate is anticipated to hold steady at 6.3%. Given that the reflation trade has been fueling expectations for a possible uptick in US inflation, the average hourly earnings data will be as important as the headline NFP print.
How could the data affect EUR/USD?
The US dollar remained well supported by the upbeat US economic outlook and the recent sharp rise in the US Treasury bond yields. A stronger than expected reading will reinforce the narrative of a strong sequential recovery and continue underpinning the greenback. Conversely, a weaker reading is more likely to be offset the progress on a massive US fiscal spending plan. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair remains on the downside.
Ahead of the key data risk, the pair dropped to three-month lows and was last seen consolidating below mid-1.1900s. Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst offered a brief technical outlook for the major: “The Relative Strength Index on the four-hour chart is just around 30 – about to enter oversold territory. On the other hand, downside momentum has strengthened and the pair is trading below the 50, 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages.”
Yohay also offered important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: “Below 1.1950, further support awaits at 1.1930, followed by 1.1880 and 1.1850 – which all played a role in December 2020. Resistance awaits at 1.1990, which was a swing low earlier in the week, and then by 1.2020, a bottom recorded in late February. The next lines to watch are 1.2050 and 1.2110.”
Key Notes
• US Nonfarm Payrolls February Preview: The inflection point
• Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Dollar booster? Three expectation downers pave way for upside surprise
• EUR/USD Forecast: Powell punched the euro to critical support, NFP set to push it over the line
About the US monthly jobs report
The nonfarm payrolls released by the US Department of Labor presents the number of new jobs created during the previous month, in all non-agricultural business. The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile, due to its high relation with economic policy decisions made by the Central Bank. The number is also subject to strong reviews in the upcoming months, and those reviews also tend to trigger volatility in the forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish), although previous months reviews and the unemployment rate are as relevant as the headline figure.
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