The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) pause to the 10-time rate hike trajectory makes today’s RBA Interest Rate Decision important even if the Officials are less likely to announce any change to the current monetary policy at around 04:30 AM GMT on Tuesday.
It’s worth noting the RBA is likely to throw dice on the dove’s side as traders remain divided over the Aussie central bank’s peak rate.
Given the recently mixed statements in the RBA minutes and a contrasting play between inflation and wage numbers, not to forget the talks of policy pivot, the AUD/USD traders will be more interested in hearing about the end of the rate hike trajectory, making this event crucial.
Ahead of the event, Analysts at ANZ said,
Most economists, including ANZ, expect the RBA will again leave its cash rate unchanged at 3.60% today following a larger-than-expected decline in trimmed mean inflation. The market is pricing in just 3bp (ie a 12% chance of a 25bp hike). However, not only will it be a much closer decision than that suggests, in our view, but there is disagreement about whether 3.6% marks the final peak, making the RBA’s tone today crucial for the market reaction
On the same line, FXStreet’s Matias Salord said,
The (AUD/USD) pair seems to be vulnerable ahead of the RBA meeting. Not much impact is expected from the meeting. The central bank is likely to repeat the same message, leaving market participants with no new information. However, if the RBA suggests it could start hiking again soon, the Aussie could rally, at least until Friday's monetary statement. The signs of an extended pause ahead are what markets expect, so it should not significantly influence the AUD/USD.
How could the RBA decision affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD remains sidelined near 0.6635-40 while portraying the pre-RBA anxiety among traders. Also challenging the risk-barometer pair are the fears of the fresh US-China tussles over Taiwan and the US default woes, not to forget the hawkish Fed bets.
That said, the RBA is likely to trouble momentum traders as most analysts on the table anticipate no rate change. However, the economic forecasts and talks surrounding the policy pivot rate will be crucial to watch for the Aussie pair traders to watch for clear directions.
Should the RBA shows readiness to resume the rate hike trajectory from the next meeting, or surprises the markets by doing the same in today’s RBA Rate Statement, the AUD/USD may have a further upside to trace. Until then, the AUD/USD may remain on the bear’s radar.
Technically, the Aussie pair defends the previous day’s U-turn from a two-week-old resistance line, as well as the inability to cross the previous support line from early March, now immediate resistance near 0.6655, which in turn joins downbeat oscillators to favor bears.
Key quotes
Reserve Bank of Australia Preview: No change, nothing new for the Aussie
AUD/USD Price Analysis: Well set for further downside past 0.6650 on RBA Day
AUD/USD eases towards 0.6600 with eyes on RBA Interest Rate Decision
About the RBA interest rate decision
RBA Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the AUD. Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view of the Australian economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.
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