When is the New Zealand Q3 retail sales data and how could it affect NZD/USD?

Overview of quarterly retail sales

Early Monday in Asia, at 21:45 GMT Sunday elsewhere, sees the quarterly retail sales data from the Statistics New Zealand. As the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr recently conveyed concerns for globally increasing coronavirus (COVID-19) cases, while also declining negative rates, today’s New Zealand (NZ) Retail Sales for the third quarter (Q3) becomes the key to watch especially ahead of Orr’s next speech, on Wednesday.

With the recently announced Credit Card Spending being on the upside, chances of a strong print from the headline economics can’t be denied. Even so, the QoQ forecasts indicate bearish signals with the Retail Sales likely declining -15.9% versus -14.6%. However, the Core Retail Sales might have improved, as per the market consensus, from -13.7% to -12.6% QoQ in the Q3.

Analysts at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) expect a sharp bounce in the data,

New Zealand retail sales kick off the Q3 GDP partials season. ANZ is expecting 16.5% q/q in a sharp bounce-back from Q2’s lockdown retail carnage. We also have Australia’s PMIs.

Westpac also follows the suit while saying,

Westpac expects that Q3 real retail sales will rebound 17% and retrace most of the ground lost in the June quarter.

How could it affect NZD/USD?

NZD/USD wavers around the highest in two years while flirting with the December 2018 top of 0.6971 off-late. The RBNZ’s clear no to the negative rates and New Zealand’s ability to overcome the pandemic, comparatively stronger than the rest of the world, can gain additional support from today’s Retail Sales data and help the Kiwi pair to attack the 0.7000 round-figure. However, too much of the New Zealand dollar strength is negative for the export-oriented economy and hence bulls may remain cautious even in case of too good data if any. Meanwhile, a negative surprise can be the much-awaited hint for the short-term sellers’ entries.

Technically, unless declining back below the 0.6800 mark, comprising multiple highs flashed during the mid-2019 and September 2020, bulls are likely to keep the reins. In doing so, the 0.7000 psychological magnet can become their immediate target. However, a downside break of 10-day SMA, currently near 0.6880 can trigger intraday selling.

About New Zealand Retail Sales

The Retail Sales released by the Statistics New Zealand measures the total receipts of retail stores. Quarterly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

Are you new to trading or have been trading for a while and you feel stuck?

Try with us!
Become Premium!

Latest Forex News

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD remains sub-1.2100 after upbeat US data

US Producer Prices rose by more than anticipated, while unemployment claims shrank by more than anticipated. EUR/USD keeps trading below 1.2100 as investors eye firmer government bond yields.


GBP/USD under pressure below 1.4050 amid renewed USD demand

GBP/USD trades pressured below 1.4050, as the US dollar remains broadly bid amid risk-off sentiment. Rising inflationary pressures and Brexit jitters over NI keep investors on the edge. Bailey's speech, US data in focus.


XAU/USD bounces off weekly lows, lacks follow-through buying

Gold consolidates the heaviest losses in six weeks, fades consolidative bounce of late. Market’s struggle for clear direction after US CPI challenged Fed, US stimulus. Wall Street benchmarks dropped over 2.0%, down for third day, but S&P 500 Futures prints 0.10% gains afterward.

Gold News

Nightmares repeat as BTC flash crashes

The recent Bitcoin price crash seen on Wednesday is comparable to the one in late April. However, unlike the last time, this drop was not due to rumors of new tax proposals. 

Read more

S&P 500 Nasdaq: PPI confirms the CPI, Fed is in bed as inflation means red

Wednesday's wake-up call to the dovish Fed was repeated with the release of PPI on Thursday. Core CPI was 0.7% versus forecasts for 0.4%. Now is buy the dip still in focus and is don't fight the Fed still the trade? 

Read more