When is German GDP data and how could it affect EUR/USD?


German GDP overview

Germany's preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter, scheduled for release at 06:00 GMT, is expected to show the old continent's biggest economy contracted by 2.2%, having expanded by 0.4% in the final three months of 2019. 

A GDP reading of -2.2% or lower would be the worst since the first quarter of 2009. 

Bigger-than-expected contraction likely

Germany announced a national curfew on March 22, meaning the economic activity came to a standstill only in the last 8 or 9 of the first quarter. 

However, Germany is dependent on China, which suffered a sharp slowdown in the activity in the first two months of the year due to the coronavirus outbreak. 

Hence, the possibility of Germany reporting a bigger-than-expected contraction in the first quarter cannot be ruled out.  While economists are expecting a 2.2% contraction, Germany's DIW economic institute said last month that economy likely contracted by 2% in the first quarter. The DIW expects a 10% decline in the GDP in the second quarter. 

Impact on EUR/USD

That the coronavirus outbreak brought major economies to their knees in March and more so in April is generally accepted by now and priced in. Hence, EUR/USD may see little or no action if the GDP prints in line with estimates. 

While a surprise beat on expectations could put a bid under the EUR, the resulting gains would be short-lived, if the risk sentiment sours. 

As of writing, the futures on the S&P 500 are flatlined and the Asian stocks are putting in a mixed performance. The US stocks rallied on Thursday as investor optimism emanating from the reopening of the US economy and possibly from talks of additional US fiscal stimulus overshadowed the dismal weekly US jobless claims data. 

However, White House's advisor Larry Kudlow said late Thursday that the Trump administration is not in favor of another general massive infusion of liquidity, but is open to a targeted stimulus for states affected by the pandemic. 

Kudlow's comments may take the wind out of the risk sentiment, sending the safe-haven US dollar higher. EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.0805, representing a 0.13% drop on the day, having put in a low of 1.0775 during the Asian trading hours. 

Description

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Germany. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the German economic activity and health. A high reading or a better than expected number has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

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