AUD/USD Price Forecast: Climbs beyond 0.7100, fresh three-year peak before US NFP
- AUD/USD continues to be underpinned by the RBA’s hawkish stance and a positive risk tone.
- Fed-driven USD decline further boosts spot prices and contributes to the strong move higher.
- The technical setup backs the case for additional gains as traders await the key US NFP report.
The AUD/USD pair catches fresh bids following the previous day's modest slide and climbs to a fresh high since February 2023, beyond the 0.7100 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday. China's unimpressive inflation figures reinforced concerns that deflationary pressures continue to weigh on the world’s second-largest economy and raised hopes for more fiscal stimulus. This, along with the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish stance and a positive risk tone, continues to act as a tailwind for the Aussie.
The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, languishes near its lowest level in over a week amid bets for more interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Adding to this, concerns about the US central bank's independence keep the USD bulls on the back foot, which, in turn, provides an additional boost to the AUD/USD pair. Traders now look forward to the delayed release of the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for more cues about the Fed's monetary policy outlook and some meaningful impetus.
From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair has broken above a descending channel drawn from 0.6958, turning the upper boundary at 0.7014 into immediate support as the breakout develops. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive but is contracting, indicating the MACD line stays above the Signal line while upside momentum cools. RSI at 67 preserves a bullish tone, though it has eased back from overbought. Holding above the former channel resistance would keep the near-term path pointed higher.
If momentum re-accelerates, bulls could extend the topside break, while fading signals would expose a throwback toward the channel floor near 0.6876. A re-expanding MACD histogram would suggest strengthening buying pressure, whereas an RSI pullback from the high-60s would argue for a corrective pause before buyers attempt to re-engage.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.79% | -0.50% | -2.68% | -1.07% | -1.45% | -0.73% | -1.38% | |
| EUR | 0.79% | 0.30% | -1.97% | -0.29% | -0.65% | 0.10% | -0.59% | |
| GBP | 0.50% | -0.30% | -1.97% | -0.58% | -0.95% | -0.22% | -0.89% | |
| JPY | 2.68% | 1.97% | 1.97% | 1.72% | 1.32% | 2.08% | 1.29% | |
| CAD | 1.07% | 0.29% | 0.58% | -1.72% | -0.28% | 0.36% | -0.31% | |
| AUD | 1.45% | 0.65% | 0.95% | -1.32% | 0.28% | 0.73% | 0.07% | |
| NZD | 0.73% | -0.10% | 0.22% | -2.08% | -0.36% | -0.73% | -0.65% | |
| CHF | 1.38% | 0.59% | 0.89% | -1.29% | 0.31% | -0.07% | 0.65% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
