When is Australia Retail Sales and how could it affect AUD/USD?

Anil Panchal FXStreet

Retail Sales Overview

Early Friday, around 01:30 AM GMT, the market sees preliminary readings of Australia's seasonally adjusted Retail Sales for April month. Market consensus suggests an easing in the seasonally adjusted monthly print to 0.2% MoM from 0.4% prior, indicating more headwinds for the pressure Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), especially after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s dovish hike.

Given the less impact of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) latest hawkish surprise, as well as fresh talks of policy pivot in Australia and New Zealand, not to forget the mixed comments from the RBA officials, today’s Aussie Retail Sales data appears crucial for the AUD/USD traders.

How could it affect AUD/USD?

AUD/USD stays pressured at the lowest level in six months around 0.6500 as it braces for the downbeat Aussie data during early Friday. In doing so, the Aussie pair also bears the burden of the sour sentiment and the market’s cautious mood ahead of the key data/events.

That said, the recent chatters surrounding the Aussie recession, as well as receding monetary policy divergence between the RBA and the Fed, may seek validation from today’s Aussie Retail Sales data. Hence, recovery in the key statistics may allow the AUD/USD to lick its wounds at the yearly low.

It should be noted, however, that the Aussie data may have a knee-jerk reaction for the AUD/USD pair as traders are more interested in the US Durable Goods Orders for April and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for the said month, known as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, not to forget the debt ceiling negotiations. Hence, even if the data posts any positive surprise, which is highly unlikely, the market reaction to the same will be short-lived.

Technically, a daily closing below the 0.6550 support confluence, now resistance, joins the bearish MACD signals to keep the AUD/USD sellers hopeful. That said, a downward-sloping trend line from late November 2022 and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s run-up from October 2022 to February 2023 constitute the 0.6550 key upside hurdle.

Key Notes

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bears keep the reins near 0.6500 ahead of Aussie Retail Sales

AUD/USD Forecast: No respite for the Aussie in a risk-averse environment

About Australian Retail Sales

The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it's considered an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

AUD/USD sits at three-week highs above 0.7000 on hawkish RBA-speak

AUD/USD holds a positive bias for the fourth straight day, trading above 0.7000 in the Asian session on Wednesday and at three-week highs. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's hawkish remarks and inflation concerns underpin the pair. However, the upside appears capped as the US Dollar attracts some buyers amid looming US-Iran uncertainty.

USD/JPY remains confined in a familiar range below 158.50

USD/JPY sees some dip-buying in the Asian session on Wednesday, though it remains confined within a multi-week range near 158.50 as the uncertainty over the timing of the next BoJ rate hike keeps Japanese Yen bulls on the defensive. Meanwhile, hawkish Fed expectations, bolstered by inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices, underpin the US Dollar. However, looming intervention fears could limit JPY losses and cap the currency pair.

Gold extends losing spree as US bond yields hold ground

Gold maintains an offered tone heading into the European session, trading near the weekly low it touched earlier this Wednesday, with bears still awaiting a sustained break and acceptance below $4,100 before positioning for further losses. Inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices underpin prospects for further policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve. Furthermore, a modest US Dollar bounce from a near three-week low is seen weighing on the bullion.

Zcash's bullish reversal eyes $1,698 peak on NU7 upgrade

Zcash (ZEC) shows signs of bullish recovery above $1,200 on Wednesday, following a 9% rebound the previous day linked to the upcoming NU7 upgrade. Blockworks released a Zcash holders report on Tuesday, highlighting steady network growth. The technical outlook for ZEC is bullish, with bulls eyeing an extended rally toward $1,698.

US – Midterm update: Pre-election tail risk scenarios

With two weeks until the US midterm elections on 3 November, early voting has already opened in more than 40 states. Prediction markets are broadly unchanged since we published our Midterm update, 13 October. The prediction market Polymarket continues to see Democrats winning both chambers as the most likely outcome, with a 62.5% probability.

The US Dollar fell. Gold didn't rally. That tells you everything

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar (USD), after repeatedly failing to establish itself above the $4,200 level. The precious metal remains confined to a relatively narrow trading range despite a combination of developments that would normally support higher prices.