AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bears keep the reins near 0.6500 ahead of Aussie Retail Sales

AUD/USD stays depressed at the lowest levels since November 2022 after falling in the last three consecutive days.
Break of six-month-old descending trend line, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement joins bearish MACD signals to lure sellers.
Oversold RSI, market’s consolidation amid US debt ceiling jitters prod Aussie pair sellers.
Australia Retail Sales growth expected to ease in April, may allow bears to refresh yearly low.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

AUD/USD renews the lowest level in six months as it takes offers to 0.6500 during early Friday in Asia. In doing so, the Aussie pair bears the burden of the broad US Dollar strength, as well as downbeat hopes about the Australian Retail Sales data for April, likely to ease to 0.2% MoM versus 0.4% prior.

Technically, a daily closing below the 0.6550 support confluence, now resistance, joins the bearish MACD signals to keep the AUD/USD sellers hopeful. That said, a downward-sloping trend line from late November 2022 and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the AUD/USD pair’s run-up from October 2022 to February 2023 constitute the 0.6550 key upside hurdle.

Even if the Aussie pair manage to cross the 0.6550 resistance confluence, a fortnight-old falling resistance line, close to 0.6615 by the press time, can prod the buyers before giving them control.

Above all, AUD/USD remains on the bear’s radar until it provides a daily close beyond the 100-DMA level of 0.6775.

Meanwhile, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of around 0.6385 appears the key support for the AUD/USD bears to watch amid the oversold RSI (14). Also acting as a downside filter is the 0.6400 round figure.

AUD/USD: Daily chart

Trend: Further downside expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	0.6498
Today Daily Change	-0.0046
Today Daily Change %	-0.70%
Today daily open	0.6544

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.6671
Daily SMA50	0.6684
Daily SMA100	0.678
Daily SMA200	0.6708

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.6615
Previous Daily Low	0.653
Previous Weekly High	0.671
Previous Weekly Low	0.6605
Previous Monthly High	0.6806
Previous Monthly Low	0.6574
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.6562
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6583
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6511
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.6477
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.6425
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.6596
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.6649
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.6682

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

AUD/USD sits at three-week highs above 0.7000 on hawkish RBA-speak

AUD/USD holds a positive bias for the fourth straight day, trading above 0.7000 in the Asian session on Wednesday and at three-week highs. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's hawkish remarks and inflation concerns underpin the pair. However, the upside appears capped as the US Dollar attracts some buyers amid looming US-Iran uncertainty.

USD/JPY remains confined in a familiar range below 158.50

USD/JPY sees some dip-buying in the Asian session on Wednesday, though it remains confined within a multi-week range near 158.50 as the uncertainty over the timing of the next BoJ rate hike keeps Japanese Yen bulls on the defensive. Meanwhile, hawkish Fed expectations, bolstered by inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices, underpin the US Dollar. However, looming intervention fears could limit JPY losses and cap the currency pair.

Gold extends losing spree as US bond yields hold ground

Gold maintains an offered tone heading into the European session, trading near the weekly low it touched earlier this Wednesday, with bears still awaiting a sustained break and acceptance below $4,100 before positioning for further losses. Inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices underpin prospects for further policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve. Furthermore, a modest US Dollar bounce from a near three-week low is seen weighing on the bullion.

Zcash's bullish reversal eyes $1,698 peak on NU7 upgrade

Zcash (ZEC) shows signs of bullish recovery above $1,200 on Wednesday, following a 9% rebound the previous day linked to the upcoming NU7 upgrade. Blockworks released a Zcash holders report on Tuesday, highlighting steady network growth. The technical outlook for ZEC is bullish, with bulls eyeing an extended rally toward $1,698.

US – Midterm update: Pre-election tail risk scenarios

With two weeks until the US midterm elections on 3 November, early voting has already opened in more than 40 states. Prediction markets are broadly unchanged since we published our Midterm update, 13 October. The prediction market Polymarket continues to see Democrats winning both chambers as the most likely outcome, with a 62.5% probability.

The US Dollar fell. Gold didn't rally. That tells you everything

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar (USD), after repeatedly failing to establish itself above the $4,200 level. The precious metal remains confined to a relatively narrow trading range despite a combination of developments that would normally support higher prices.