EUR/USD holds steady above 1.1750 as traders await FOMC Minutes

EUR/USD trades flat around 1.1770 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
US Pending Home Sales rose 3.3% MoM last month, stronger than expected.
Traders brace for the FOMC Minutes on Tuesday for fresh impetus.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair holds steady near 1.1770 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Traders continue to price in the prospect of further rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026, following the 25-basis-point rate reduction delivered at the December meeting. The release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes will be in the spotlight later on Tuesday. The economic calendar is thin in most markets ahead of the New Year holiday.

Data released by the National Association of Realtors on Monday showed that the US Pending Home Sales rose 3.3% MoM in November after an upwardly revised 2.4% gain in October. This figure came in stronger than the expectations of 1.0% and registered its highest level since February 2023.

The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December policy meeting, bringing the target range to 3.50%-3.75%. The US central bank delivered a cumulative 75 bps of rate cuts in 2025 amidst a cooling labor market and slightly elevated inflation.

Financial markets are pricing in nearly an 18.3% odds that the Fed will reduce the interest rates at its next policy meeting in January, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Firm Fed dovish bets could weigh on the Greenback and create a tailwind for the pair in the near term.

Across the pond, the European Central Bank (ECB) held interest rates steady earlier this month and hinted they would likely remain so for some time. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the central bank cannot provide forward guidance on future rate moves due to high uncertainty, emphasizing a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach.

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

GBP/USD struggles for direction around 1.3550

GBP/USD finds it difficult to extend recent gains, meeting decent resistance around the 1.3550 area on Tuesday. Cable’s irresolute price action follows the equally directionless performance of the Greenback, while the disheartening UK jobs data also seem to linit the upside.

EUR/USD remains slightly bid, still below 1.1600

EUR/USD keeps the current bullish tone well in place and approaches the 1.1600 region on turnaround Tuesday. Indeed, the pair advances for the fourth day in a row amid the lack of direction in the US Dollar, steady uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape and diminishing bets for further Fed rate hikes.

Gold eases to two-day lows near $4,350

Gold accelerates its daily correction and revisits the $4,350 zone per troy ounce on Tuesday. The yellow metal leaves behind two daily advances in a row and follows the absence of direction in the US Dollar, declining US Treasury yields across the curve and continuous uncertainty in the Middle East crisis.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP falter amid escalating US-Iran tensions

Cryptocurrency prices are broadly correcting on Tuesday, with Bitcoin edging lower toward $64,000. Ethereum shows weakness amid ongoing narrow-range consolidation, while Ripple trades below $1.00, weighed down by falling technical indicators.

Fiscal concerns and doubts on Fed independence send US yields to long-term highs

US Treasury yields keep rising across the curve this week, with the yield for the 30-year Treasury bond reaching its highest level since 2007, during the global financial crisis, at 5.33% so far on Monday. A mix of concerns about the ballooning US fiscal deficit and growing doubts about the Federal Reserve’s Independence are increasing pressure on US Government Bonds.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.