When are US monthly retail sales figures and how could they affect EUR/USD?


US monthly retail sales overview

Tuesday's US economic docket highlights the release of monthly retail sales figures for June, scheduled at 12:30 GMT. Following the previous month's solid figures, consensus estimates point to a deceleration in growth during the reported month. The headline sales are predicted to rise a modest 0.1% monthly as compared to May's upbeat reading of 0.5%, and sales excluding automobiles are also seen ticking higher by 0.1% as against 0.5% previous. Meanwhile, the growth for the closely watched Retail Sales Control Group is expected to rise by 0.3% as compared to the previous monthly downwardly revised reading of 0.4%. 

According to analysts at Wells Fargo, the data which will provide them with a complete look at how sales fared over the second quarter. “We have recently nudged our Q2 personal consumption expenditures (PCE) forecast higher to 3.4% from 2.9% previously, as spending is already on solid footing for the period. Indeed, following two solid monthly gains, retail sales rose 0.5% in May. This pushed control group sales—which exclude volatile components and are a good proxy for consumer spending—up 8.5% on a three-month annualized rate. This is the fastest pace since 2006 and suggests PCE growth is tracking well north of 3% in the second quarter.”

How could it affect EUR/USD?

As Pablo Piovano, FXStreet's Editor writes - “EUR/USD needs to regain the 1.1280/90 band - recent peaks and the 21-day SMA - in order to alleviate the prevailing downside pressure and to allow for a test of the critical 200-day SMA at 1.1321. On the way south, further downside impulse should breach the key support at 1.12 the figure, exposing the 1.1193/76 band, where coincide July low, June 18 low and March low.”

Key Notes

   •  US June Retail Sales Preview: Job, jobs, jobs

   •  EUR/USD Forecast: a test of 1.1200 and below is back to the radar

   •  EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Spot is eroding the 55-day SMA near 1.1240

About US retail sales

The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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