When are the UK retail sales and how could they affect GBP/USD?


UK Retail Sales Overview

The UK retail sales, scheduled to be published later this session at 0830 GMT, are expected to drop 0.2% m/m in July, following a +0.1% figure seen in June. Total retail sales are seen arriving at 2.6% over the year in the reported month, down from 3.8% booked previously.

Meanwhile, core retail sales, stripping the basket off motor fuel sales, are seen declining 0.2% m/m while rising 2.3% y/y.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 70 pips in deviations up to 3.5 to -1.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, can fuel movements of up to 100 pips.

How could it affect GBP/USD?

FXStreet’s Analyst Anil Panchal notes: “GBP/USD maintains the 60-pip range below 1.2100, active since early-week. Portraying the move, 14-bar relative strength index also flashes normal trade condition, signaling inaction that requires either side break of the range. Presently, the quote declines towards 1.2040 support, which if broken can quickly fetch it to 1.2015 and then to the 2017 low around 1.1987.”

“On the upside, 1.2100 and a downward sloping trend-line since August 06 at 1.2120 limits the pair’s near-term advances. If buyers sneak in around 1.2120, August 08 high near 1.2183 will appear on their radar,” Anil adds.

Key Notes

UK: Retail Sales to rise another 0.3% m/m in July - TDS

Forex Today: Falling Treasury yields still signal caution, UK/US Retail Sales in focus

GBP futures: extra rangebound likely

About the UK Retail Sales

The retail sales released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

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