USD/INR: Upside risks from outflows and AI concerns – MUFG

MUFG’s Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee note that India’s fourth‑quarter GDP is expected to slow on weaker exports, though domestic demand remains resilient. From an FX angle, they see the Rupee pressured by capital outflows and sector concerns, projecting USD/INR to move higher over the medium term with some possible March relief.

Rupee pressured by flows and sentiment

"Elsewhere in Asia, India’s fourth‑quarter GDP is projected to slow with softer export growth driven by the lagged impact of tariffs, but supported by resilient domestic demand."

"From an FX perspective, INR remains on the backfoot given continued capital outflows driven by the PE/VC exit cycle, still soft FII inflows despite the recent trade deal and also recent concerns around the impact of AI on India’s IT services sector."

"We see USD/INR rising towards the 93.00 handle over the medium-term, although some near-term relief in March could be possible on better seasonality and some expected inflows."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)