When are the UK jobs and how could they affect GBP/USD?

UK Jobs report overview

Early Tuesday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the January month Claimant Count figures together with the Unemployment Rate in the three months to November at 07:00 AM GMT. Although the UK’s unlock announcement, unveiled the previous day, keeps GBP/USD traders hopeful amid a quiet session, bulls need to gain another positive surprise from the British economics to stay on the bull’s radar.

The UK labor market report is expected to show that the average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to December, grew from the previous 3.6% to 4.2%, while ex-bonuses, the wages are seen improving from 3.6% to 4.0% during the stated period.

The number of people seeking jobless benefits, namely the Claimant Count Change, recovered to 7K in December while the key jobs figure is expected as +35K for January. Further, the ILO Unemployment Rate challenges upbeat signals of the employment data as forecasts suggest an uptick to 5.1% from 5.0% during the three months ending in December.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined around 20-pips in deviations up to + or -2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements over 60-70 pips.


How could they affect GBP/USD?

GBP/USD takes the bids around 1.4085 while teasing the previous day’s multi-month top near 1.4086 ahead of the London open on Wednesday. In doing, the sterling buyers justify the optimism concerning Britain’s gradual recovery from the pandemic. Also supporting the mood could be the recent positive data concerning Inflation and Retail Sales. It should, however, be noted that the bulls are chained ahead of the key speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, bi-annual testimony.

Following the unlock guidelines, cable buyers are optimistic and hence any further economic optimism could easily refresh the 34-month top to eye the 1.4100 round-figure. Though, the data impact could be compromised by the traders’ wait for Powell. It’s worth mentioning that the options market is the most bearish a week and hence any negative data will have its repercussions at the multi-month top.

Technically, the cable bulls have gained a pass to the 2018 top ever since they crossed a horizontal area comprising multiple highs marked since May 2018. Meanwhile, pullback moves can eye the 1.4000 threshold but January tops near 1.3750 can challenge the GBP/USD sellers.

Key notes

GBP/USD: Option markets flash bearish signals ahead of UK jobs report

BOE’s Vlieghe: Interest rates may stay at historically low levels for decades

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Bulls on the move for seventh week, eyes 2018 peak ahead of UK jobs

GBP/USD Forecast: Fresh highs on PM Johnson’s plan out of lockdown

About UK jobs

The UK Average Earnings released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the UK economy. Generally speaking, the positive earnings growth anticipates positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

GBP/USD holds above 1.4050 after upbeat UK job figures

GBP/USD is trading above 1.4050, near the fresh 35-month highs as US yields retreat from the highs and push the dollar lower. UK wages rose by 4.7% in December and January's jobless claims fell by 20,000, both better than expected. 


Bitcoin stages a quick bounce above $50,000 after the 11% sell-off

The wild ride in Bitcoin continues in Tuesday’s Asian trading, as the BTC sellers are back in control, knocking off prices by almost 11%. Although, strong bids emerged just above $48,500 levels, prompting the flagship cryptocurrency to stage a quick recovery back beyond the $50,000 mark.

Read more

EUR/USD sets four-week high, eyes Powell's testimony

EUR/USD advances toward 1.2200 but is struggling to keep the bullish momentum going, with investors turning cautious ahead of the Fed Chairman  Powell's appearance before Congress later Tuesday.


XAU/USD retreats from one-week tops, on the defensive below $1810 level

A combination of factors failed to assist gold to capitalize on the early uptick to one-week tops. The underlying bullish tone in the financial markets capped gains for the safe-haven commodity. The recent rally in the US bond yields also held bulls from placing bets around the yellow metal.

Gold news

US Dollar Index struggles for direction around 90.00, looks to Fed, data

DXY consolidates the recent drop and hovers around 90.00. The dollar has decoupled from performance in yields in past hours. Housing data, Fed’s Powell testimony, Consumer Confidence next on tap.

US Dollar Index News