Eurozone Preliminary GDP expands 0.3% QoQ in Q4 vs. 0.2% expected
The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.3% in the three months to December of 2025 after rising by 0.3% in the previous quarter, the preliminary estimate released by Eurostat showed Friday.
The market consensus was for a 0.2% growth in the reported period.
The bloc’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose at an annual rate of 1.4% in Q4, at the same pace seen in Q3, and against a 1.2% expected figure.
Meanwhile, the old continent’s Unemployment Rate for December ticked down to 6.2% from 6.3%.
EUR/USD reaction to the Eurozone GDP report
EUR/USD remains heavy near 1.1900 despite upbeat German and Eurozone data, down 0.51% on the day.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.46% | 0.48% | 0.71% | 0.40% | 0.91% | 0.61% | 0.52% | |
| EUR | -0.46% | 0.02% | 0.26% | -0.05% | 0.46% | 0.17% | 0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.48% | -0.02% | 0.23% | -0.07% | 0.44% | 0.13% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | -0.71% | -0.26% | -0.23% | -0.31% | 0.19% | -0.12% | -0.21% | |
| CAD | -0.40% | 0.05% | 0.07% | 0.31% | 0.50% | 0.19% | 0.11% | |
| AUD | -0.91% | -0.46% | -0.44% | -0.19% | -0.50% | -0.30% | -0.39% | |
| NZD | -0.61% | -0.17% | -0.13% | 0.12% | -0.19% | 0.30% | -0.09% | |
| CHF | -0.52% | -0.06% | -0.04% | 0.21% | -0.11% | 0.39% | 0.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
This section below was published at 09:02 GMT as a preview of the preliminary German and Eurozone GDP data.
The German economy expanded by 0.3% over the quarter in the final quarter of 2025, following a 0% print in the third quarter, according to the preliminary data published by Destatis on Friday.
The market forecast was for a 0.2% growth in the reported period.
Meanwhile, the annual GDP rate climbed by 0.4% in Q4 after reporting a 0.3% increase in Q3, while beating the market expectations of 0.3%.
EUR/USD reaction to the German GDP data
The German data fails to move the needle around the Euro (EUR), keeping EUR/USD 0.31% lower on the day near 1.1935 at the press time.
This section below was published at 07:31 GMT as a preview of the preliminary German and Eurozone GDP data.
The German/Eurozone Q4 GDP Overview
The Federal Statistics Office of Germany is set to release preliminary Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for Germany at 09:00 GMT, and Eurostat will likely report flash Eurozone GDP figures for the same period at 10:00 GMT on Friday.
Germany’s preliminary GDP is forecast to grow 0.2% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) in the fourth quarter, after stagnating in the prior quarter. Meanwhile, the economic growth is expected to hold steady at 0.3% Year-over-year (YoY) in Q4.
Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted flash Eurozone GDP is projected to rise 0.2% QoQ in Q4, easing from 0.3% previously, while annual growth is seen slowing to 1.2% from 1.4%.
How could the German/Eurozone Q4 GDP affect EUR/USD?
The EUR/USD pair could come under pressure if GDP data from Germany and the Eurozone meet expectations. Markets will also focus on December unemployment figures for both regions, along with Germany’s January Consumer Price Index (CPI).
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Martin Kocher warned that further Euro (EUR) appreciation could prompt the central bank to resume interest-rate cuts. Following his comments, markets slightly increased expectations for a summer move, with the implied probability of a July cut rising to around 25% from about 15%. The ECB meets next week and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged.
The EUR/USD pair struggles as the US Dollar (USD) rises on speculation that US President Donald Trump will nominate former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair. Trump said late Thursday he would announce his choice on Friday morning, with markets favoring Warsh, who is seen as a more hawkish option.
Technically, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1920 at the time of writing. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests an ongoing bullish bias as the pair is remaining within the ascending channel pattern. The pair could approach the initial barrier at the upper boundary of the channel around 1.2050, followed by 1.2082, the highest since June 2021. On the downside, the immediate support lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.1870, followed by the lower channel boundary around 1.1840.
GDP FAQs
A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted.
A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate.
When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.
Author
Akhtar Faruqui
FXStreet
Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.
