Overview of Australian jobs report (Feb)
Australia's monthly jobs report is back on the cards for Asian markets today, due 0030GMT. However, the data may not stack up to be so positive all around as the recent run of late, but a tick down in the unemployment rate could give AUD a boost and labour data continues to be an important positive signal on the economy for the RBA.
Australia’s Dec employment report is due at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. Job creation reportedly jumped to 37k in Nov, boosting the 6mth annualized pace to a rapid 2.9%. Sample rotation seems to have played a role though. Westpac looks for some payback, with a modest 5k rise in total employment (consensus 18k). Our forecast for the unemployment rate however is in line with consensus, holding steady at 5.1%, thanks to a pullback in the participation rate after the unexpected jump in Nov.
How could the data affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD is in a corrective phase and the flow has turned positive with a break of the last swing high on the hourly chart, but far from positive on the daily outlook at this juncture while still struggling to gain traction below the 38.2% Fibo retracement of the 2018 decline. The price is supported on the 21-D SMA 0.7118, but if that gives, bears will be back in control looking for a test of 0.71 the figure, and considering the angst over Sino/US trade and various market strife, its not a far stretch for a look in at the key support structure down at 0.7000/20. For the upside, "Beyond this pullback, the market targets the September and early November highs at 0.7302/14 and the 200-day ma at 0.7306, where it is expected to struggle," analysts at Commerzbank argued.
Key notes:
About Aussie jobs data:
The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
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