Markets are expecting too much tightening from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) warn analysts at CIBC. They see the USD/ZAR at 15.75 by the end of the first quarter and at 16.00 by mid-year.  

Key Quotes: 

“The South African Reserve Bank has followed the November hike with a second 25bp move, taking rates to 4.0%. After beginning the process of unwinding pandemic-inspired policy easing at their previous meeting, it seems that the central bank remains biased towards a slow and progressive data-dependent tightening cycle. After witnessing CPI threaten the top of the 3-6% CPI target range in December, we expect a potential overshoot in early 2022.”

“The rates trajectory is set to remain data-dependent. Therefore, if the central bank is correct in assuming that prices will be back in line with the mid-point of the CPI target range in two years, 4.5%, this would suggest that the market is overly aggressive in terms of pricing in 100bp of tightening in H1 this year.”

“Although the SARB may have hiked at consecutive meetings, we do not expect another move until the May meeting. The ZAR has proved a top performer versus the USD and EUR over the last two months.”

“The ZAR is an emerging market currency that is partly sheltered from the impact of Fed hikes due to elevated nominal yields. However, market recognition of too much tightening being discounted, impacting real rates, suggests that the recent rapid accumulation of ZAR real money speculative positions risks correcting. As a result, we look for USD/ZAR to trade back towards 16.00 into mid-year.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news Join Telegram

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD holds gains around 0.6800 on upbeat China's Caixin PMI

AUD/USD holds gains around 0.6800 on upbeat China's Caixin PMI

AUD/USD is trading close to 0.6800, as traders digest an unexpected increase in the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI. The US dollar is licking its wounds on dovish Fed's Powell and the China reopening optimism. 

AUDUSD News

EUR/USD bulls approach 1.0500 hurdle ahead of German Retail Sales, Fed’s preferred inflation data

EUR/USD bulls approach 1.0500 hurdle ahead of German Retail Sales, Fed’s preferred inflation data

EUR/USD stays on the front foot around 1.0435 while renewing its intraday top amid the broad-based US Dollar weakness during early Thursday. In doing so, the major currency pair extends the previous day’s run-up ahead of the key data from Eurozone and the United States.

EUR/USD News

Gold bulls eye $1,787 and $1,796 ahead of key US data

Gold bulls eye $1,787 and $1,796 ahead of key US data

Gold price is sitting at the highest level unseen in two weeks near $1,780, consolidating the three-day winning streak so far this Thursday. The main underlying reason behind the Gold price upsurge is a clear dovish message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Gold News

TRON price faces major resistance at these levels, is a sucker's rally underway?

TRON price faces major resistance at these levels, is a sucker's rally underway?

TRON price (TRX) has retaliated considerably against the bearish onslaught witnessed in November. Despite the optimistic gesture, TRX price still faces significant barriers of resistance ahead. Traders should consider trading more conservatively near the current price levels.

Read more

December Santa rally springs alive

December Santa rally springs alive

U.S. stocks rose, hurtling ahead, putting those nasty thoughts of a bear market to bed as the December Santa Rally springs alive. Indeed investors are revelling in the afterglow of moderating Fed signals.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures