USD/TRY: We continue to remain bearish on the lira - Danske Bank


Analysts at Danske Bank remains bearish on the Turkish lira but they raise the medium- and long-term outlook slightly due to the currency stabilisation and a more flexible Federal Reserve. 

Key Quotes: 

“Recent net flows into Turkish bonds and stocks have been positive as a softening US Fed has improved sentiment. According to technical analysis (Relative Strength Index), the USD/TRY continues near ‘the fair value’ where it returned after the significant hike in September 2018.”

“Major downside risks to our TRY forecasts include a surprise monetary easing ahead of local elections held in March 2019, the Fed becoming more hawkish and a geopolitical confrontation in Syria.”

“We raise our TRY medium- and long-term outlook slightly due to the currency stabilisation and more flexible Fed. However, large FX debt redemptions by Turkish private sector and rate cuts will weigh on the TRY in 2019. Thus, we continue to remain bearish on the currency in the long term and forecast USD/TRY at the following levels: 5.40 in 1M, 5.55 in 3M, 5.70 in 6M (previously 6.00) and 6.00 in 12M (previously 6.25).”
 

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD: consolidates recent gains, holds above 200-day SMA

The Euro and the US Dollar posted mixed results across the board on Wednesday. The greenback outperformed during the first half of the day after Fed rate cut expectations were tampered by comments from Fed’s officials on Tuesday.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD recovers to 1.2700 post-UK political hustings

With the UK Prime Minister (PM) frontrunner Boris Johnson’s surprising comments on chances of the no-deal Brexit at the political hustings, followed by cross-party MPs’ plan to move forward to direct the Brexit.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY extends the break above 108.00 on US-China trade truce news

The latest reports of a US-China trade truce triggered a renewed risk-on wave and knocked-off the Yen, with the USD/JPY pair now extending its break above the 108 handle while the focus shifts towards the US Q1 final GDP data for fresh impetus.  

USD/JPY News

Gold: Off 6-year highs, but breakout on monthly chart a done deal

With the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) still holding well above 70.00, the yellow metal may drop below $1,400 in the next 24-36 hours. Also, reports of temporary US-China trade truce could weigh over the safe haven metal.

Gold News

US Q1 GDP Final Revision Preview: Look ahead not behind

The second revision and third version of first quarter annualized GDP is expected to be unchanged at 3.1%. The initial release was 3.2% and the first revision was 3.1%. The unexpected strength of the US economy in the first quarter came after a successful 2018.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures