USD/TRY: The 18.00 hurdle remains the big magnet for bulls

  • USD/TRY adds to recent gains near the 18.00 barrier.
  • Türkiye Industrial Production expanded 8.5% YoY in June.
  • CBRT’s sees inflation around 70% by year end.

The Turkish lira remains on the defensive in the second half of the week and lifts USD/TRY back to the boundaries of the 18.00 mark on Friday.

USD/TRY up on USD-buying

USD/TRY advances for the second session in a row and keeps the trade at shouting distance from the key hurdle at 18.00 the figure for yet another session at the end of the week.

Friday’s uptick in spot comes on the back of renewed strength in the buck, as the recovery in the risk complex seems to be taking a breather following the persistent rebound in past sessions.

In Türkiye, Industrial Production surprised to the upside and expanded 8.5% in the year to June, while Retail Sales contracted 0.7% MoM and expanded 5.5% over the last twelve months.

In addition, the Turkish central bank (CBRT) released its End Year CPI Forecast, and now sees consumer prices rising 70.60% by end of 2022 (from 69.94%).

What to look for around TRY

The upside bias in USD/TRY remains unchanged and stays on course to revisit the key 18.00 zone.

In the meantime, the lira’s price action is expected to keep gyrating around the performance of energy and commodity prices - which are directly correlated to developments from the war in Ukraine - the broad risk appetite trends and the Fed’s rate path in the next months.

Extra risks facing the Turkish currency also come from the domestic backyard, as inflation gives no signs of abating (despite rising less than forecast in July), real interest rates remain entrenched in negative figures and the political pressure to keep the CBRT biased towards low interest rates remains omnipresent. In addition, there seems to be no Plan B to attract foreign currency in a context where the country’s FX reserves dwindle by the day.

Key events in Türkiye this week: End year CPI Forecast, Industrial Production, Retail Sales (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: FX intervention by the CBRT. Progress (or lack of it) of the government’s new scheme oriented to support the lira via protected time deposits. Constant government pressure on the CBRT vs. bank’s credibility/independence. Bouts of geopolitical concerns. Structural reforms. Presidential/Parliamentary elections in June 23.

USD/TRY key levels

So far, the pair is gaining 0.12% at 17.9556 and faces the immediate target at 17.9874 (2022 high August 3) seconded by 18.2582 (all-time high December 20) and then 19.00 (round level). On the other hand, a breach of 17.1903 (weekly low July 15) would pave the way for 16.2788 (100-day SMA) and finally 16.0365 (monthly low June 27).

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