USD/TRY rebounds to $9.2400 ahead of CBRT Interest Rate Decision

USD/TRY consolidates weekly losses near record top, sidelined of late.
Fitch says Turkey’s ‘premature’ rate cut risks higher inflation.
Turkish President Erdogan lauds global investor confidence in Turkey.
CBRT is up for another rate cut, Turkish Consumer Confidence and US data important too.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

USD/TRY picks up bids around $9.2430, up 0.33% intraday ahead of Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the Turkish Lira (TRY) pair pares weekly losses ahead of the key monetary policy meeting of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT).

The pair’s rebound could be linked to the comments from the global rating agency Fitch. “Turkey's interest rate cut last month risks pushing inflation higher than Fitch Ratings' estimate of 17.2% by year end,” said Fitch per Reuters.

The news also mentions the fact that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has abruptly ousted the last three central bank governors and last week he fired three bank policymakers including two seen to oppose the September rate cut.

It was additionally mentioned, “Sources close to the presidency have told Reuters that Erdogan had pushed for monetary stimulus for months with the aim of boosting lending, exports and jobs.”

Even so, Turkish President Erdogan said, per Reuters, “International investors place their trust in Turkey, believing in its potential and bright future. President Erdogan addressed the party members at the AK Party Adana Extended Provincial Consultative Meeting.”

The US Dollar Index (DXY), on the other hand, refreshes a three-week low amid market optimism and a lack of directives ahead of Friday’s preliminary reading of October’s PMI data.

Looking forward, USD/TRY moves rely on the CBRT Interest Rate Decision, expected 17.5% versus 18.0% prior. Also important will be Turkey’s monthly Consumer Confidence data for October, prior 79.7. Although its least expected that the CBRT will defy the market forecast of a rate cut any surprises won’t be taken lightly.

Following that, US Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and Existing Home Sales may entertain the pair traders.

Technical analysis

Overbought RSI conditions challenge USD/TRY recovery towards the all-time high of $9.3765. On the contrary, the 10-DMA near $9.1670 offers immediate support.

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

EUR/USD climbs to two-week high above 1.1700

EUR/USD gathers bullish momentum and trades at its highest level in two weeks above 1.1700 on Tuesday after closing in positive territory on Monday. In the absence of high-tier data releases, investors will remain focused on headlines surrounding the EU-US dispute over Greenland.

GBP/USD ignores UK jobs data, advances toward 1.3500

GBP/USD regains its traction and rises toward 1.3500 on Tuesday. Investors ignore the data from the UK, which showed that the ILO Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5.1% in the three months to November, and continue to pay close attention to the EU-US conflict.

Gold extends rally, notches new record-high above $4,700

Gold builds on Monday's impressive gains and trades at a new record-high, well above $4,700 on Tuesday. Escalating geopolitical tensions and growing fears of deepening trade conflicts, alongside the broad-based selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar, fuel XAU/USD's rally.

Bitcoin extends decline as tensions around Greenland mount

Bitcoin price extends losses, trading below $91,000 at the time of writing on Tuesday amid escalating geopolitical tensions over Greenland. Investors are moving toward safe-haven assets, with Gold hitting fresh all-time highs, while BTC continues to nosedive.

Greenland tariffs: What happened, and how to position for the new Europe risk premium

Over the weekend, President Trump threatened a new round of tariffs on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the UK, with reporting flagging 10% from February 1 and a possible step-up later.

Pi Network Price Forecast: PI rebounds slightly but selling pressure persists

Pi Network (PI) edges higher by 1% at press time on Tuesday, signaling a minor recovery after recording a fresh record low of $0.1502 on Monday. Mainnet holders have withdrawn over 4 million PI tokens from centralized exchanges supporting Pi Network over the last 24 hours.