USD to remain supported by a hawkish Fed and a safe-haven bid in Q4 – CIBC

Economists at CIBC Capital Markets have been USD bulls for a few quarters now. They see little reason to deviate at this point.

USD dominance to fade next year

“We still see a sufficient degree of uncertainty with respect to where the Fed terminal is priced to keep the greenback supported on dips against other major developed market currencies.”

“A weaker backdrop for global demand should continue to buttress the USD via the safe-haven channel. That should show up against the commodity and select EM currency blocs that have been relatively sheltered against hitherto USD strength compared to the funders (like the EUR, and JPY).”

“Next year, we expect market narratives to shift towards an ex-US recovery. But that’s a story for another time.”