USD/MXN Price Analysis: Bears need acceptance from 18.15 support confluence

USD/MXN remains sidelined after snapping three-day uptrend the previous day.
Convergence of 200-HMA, three-week-old previous resistance line puts a floor under Mexican Peso pair’s price.
Hesitance in extending trend line break, looming bull cross on MACD lures buyers; recovery remains elusive below 18.40.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

USD/MXN pair treads water around 18.23 during a sluggish start of the Good Friday holidays in major bourses. In doing so, the Mexican Peso (MXN) pair struggles to extend the previous day’s downside break of an upward-sloping trend line stretched from Tuesday.

Not only the USD/MXN pair’s resistance in extending the trend line break but an impending bull cross on the MACD indicator also challenge the sellers.

Furthermore, the 200-HMA and resistance-turned-support line from mid-March, around 18.15 by the press time, acts as a tough nut to crack for the USD/MXN bears.

In a case where the pair drops below 18.15, the odds of witnessing a fresh Year-To-Date (YTD) low, currently around 17.96, can’t be ruled out.

Meanwhile, USD/MXN recovery should initially cross the three-day-old previous support line, around 18.35 at the latest, to restore intraday buyer’s confidence.

Even so, the weekly top surrounding 18.40 can act as an extra filter towards the north before giving control to the bulls.

Following that, multiple levels near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s fall from March 20 to April 03, around 18.45, can entertain the USD/MXN bulls before directing them to 18.80 and then to the 19.00 psychological magnet.

Overall, USD/MXN is yet to break the 18.15 support to convince bears. Until then, the hopes of witnessing a recovery remain on the table.

USD/MXN: Hourly chart

Trend: Recovery expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	18.2401
Today Daily Change	-0.0021
Today Daily Change %	-0.01%
Today daily open	18.2422

Trends
Daily SMA20	18.4595
Daily SMA50	18.4816
Daily SMA100	18.9036
Daily SMA200	19.4941

Levels
Previous Daily High	18.381
Previous Daily Low	18.2004
Previous Weekly High	18.4681
Previous Weekly Low	17.99
Previous Monthly High	19.2324
Previous Monthly Low	17.8977
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	18.2694
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	18.312
Daily Pivot Point S1	18.168
Daily Pivot Point S2	18.0939
Daily Pivot Point S3	17.9874
Daily Pivot Point R1	18.3487
Daily Pivot Point R2	18.4552
Daily Pivot Point R3	18.5293

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

GBP/USD defends 1.3300 after strong UK PMI data

Following Thursday's sharp decline, GBP/USD clings to small gains above 1.3300 in the American session on Friday, supported by the upbeat UK Retail Sales and July PMI data. Nevertheless, the pair's upside remains capped as investors cling to a cautious stance amid a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The US July PMI data failed to trigger relevant price action.

EUR/USD remains below 1.1400 after mixed US PMIs

EUR/USD pressures daily lows below the 1.1400 mark in the American session on Friday. Mixed S&P Global PMIs, as manufacturing output contracted while services activity expanded in July, triggered no relevant market reaction. The focus remains in Middle East developments and inflation-related concerns.

Gold holds above $4,050 but momentum still missing

Gold builds on its modest intraday bounce and climbs above the $4,050 level on Friday, hitting a fresh daily high amid a modest US Dollar pullback. The fundamental backdrop, however, warrants some caution before confirming that the pullback from an over two-week high, touched on Wednesday, has run its course and positioning for any meaningful upside.

Ethereum: Derivatives interest in ETH improves, but signs of caution remain

Ethereum is hovering slightly below the $1,900 level, down 3% on Thursday following a slight expansion in derivatives interest. The top altcoin's open interest has increased to 14.60 million ETH, marking a 600K ETH increase over the past two days and its highest level since June 7.

XRP retreats as ETF interest cools

Ripple (XRP) slides toward the short-term $1.10 support on Friday, as broader crypto market sentiment weighs on crypto assets. The sell-off mainly stems from fears of inflation in the United States (US) amid the ongoing war in the Middle East and rising Oil prices.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.