|

USD/MXN jumps to the 20.45 area as dollar soars on recession fears

  • Emerging market currencies extend weekly losses on Friday.
  • US dollar firm on risk aversion, DXY up 0.65%.
  • USD/MXN testing critical resistance that contains the 100-week SMA.

The US dollar is rising against emerging market currencies on Friday, extending weekly gains boosted by global concerns about the growth outlook and as central banks raise interest rates. The Mexican peso is among the worst performers.

The USD/MXN jumped on Friday to 20.46, reaching the highest level in two weeks. It then pulled back to the 20.30 level. High volatility is likely to remain elevated as panic continues to drive price action.

After a brief pause, USD/MXN resumed the upside on Friday, adding to weekly gains. It started to move higher from 20.05 (20-day SMA). The rally found resistance at the 20.45 strong barrier that contains the 100-week SMA. A consolidation above should point to more gains. The next strong resistance is located at 20.70.

Fear almost everywhere

In Wall Street, the main indexes are in red but off lows. Bond yields are sharply lower, reflecting risk aversion and softer expectations about monetary tightening. Economic data from the US showed a larger than expected decline in ISM Manufacturing in June that fueled recession fears.

Despite the slowdown in activity, high inflation pressures the Fed and other central banks to tighten aggressively monetary policy. Higher rates are usually negative for emerging markets.

USD/MXN weekly chart

USDMXN

USD/MXN

Overview
Today last price20.3736
Today Daily Change0.2677
Today Daily Change %1.33
Today daily open20.1059
 
Trends
Daily SMA2020.0323
Daily SMA5020.0514
Daily SMA10020.19
Daily SMA20020.4264
 
Levels
Previous Daily High20.2657
Previous Daily Low20.0616
Previous Weekly High20.3786
Previous Weekly Low19.826
Previous Monthly High20.7028
Previous Monthly Low19.4709
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%20.1396
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%20.1877
Daily Pivot Point S120.0231
Daily Pivot Point S219.9403
Daily Pivot Point S319.819
Daily Pivot Point R120.2272
Daily Pivot Point R220.3485
Daily Pivot Point R320.4313

Author

Matías Salord

Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.

More from Matías Salord
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD looks to stabilize near 1.1600 as focus shifts to US data

EUR/USD is looking to stabilize near 1.1600 in the European session on Wednesday as traders breathe a sigh of relief before the top-tier US ADP jobs and ISM Services PMI data. A pause in the US Dollar uptrend helps the pair's recovery, but surging energy prices due to the Iran war will likely remain a drag. 

GBP/USD stays weak near 1.3350 as USD preserves gains

GBP/USD stays in the red below 1.3350 in the European session on Wednesday. Escalating conflict in the Middle East keeps the "flight to safety" theme intact, supporting the US Dollar against the Pound Sterling. Traders will take more cues from the US ADP Employment and ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index reports, which are due later on Wednesday. 

Gold sticks to intraday gains above $5,150; upside seems limited amid bullish USD

Gold preserves its modest intraday gains through the Asian session on Wednesday and currently trades just above the $5,150 level, up around 1.30% for the day. Investors remain concerned about a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and its impact on the global economy amid an already uncertain environment. 

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple struggle for direction as consolidation persists

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple prices trade with a cautious tone at the time of writing on Wednesday as upside momentum continues to fade across the broader crypto market. BTC remains within a parallel channel, ETH struggles below key resistance, while XRP remains fragile within a descending channel. These top three cryptocurrencies by market capitalization continue to struggle to establish a directional bias amid the consolidation phase.

When rates start driving the bus through a war zone

The volatility regime itself is also changing character. EM carry trades thrive in calm markets. They suffocate in environments that resemble Buckaroo Banzai trading conditions, where headlines move faster than models. That is exactly the world investors are now trying to recalibrate to. Euro rate volatility had been remarkably subdued even while equities were wobbling. That stability is now being questioned, and once volatility leaks into rates it rarely stays contained. Indeed, carry trades love calm seas. War turns the ocean into white water.

Solana Price Forecast: SOL consolidation near resistance as ETF inflows offer mild support

Solana price is facing slight rejection as it approaches the upper boundary of the consolidation range at around $88 on Wednesday. Institutional demand is strengthening as spot Exchange Traded Funds recorded two consecutive inflows so far this week.