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USD/MXN falls to lows since 2015 following US Core CPI

  • USD/MXN printed a fresh cycle low on Friday of 16.62 and is poised to close a 1.70% weekly loss.
  • Core US CPI retreated to 4.1% YoY in June.
  • Falling US yields limit the Greenback’s advance as markets start to place bets on the September meeting.

On Friday, the USD/MXN pair fell to its lowest point since December 2015, this time weakened but soft Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figure from June.

In that sense, the figures, which act as an essential gauge of inflation for the Federal Reserve (Fed), dropped to 4.1% YoY in June, lower than the 4.2% expected and the previous 4.6%. Its worth noticing that regarding September’s meeting, Jerome Powell added that the Fed can pause or hike and will depend solely on the data, so soft inflation figures make a case for a pause stronger, making the US yields decrease across the board.

However, the economic outlook from the US is strong as on Thursday, positive Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was reported, along with robust Durable Goods and Jobless Claims data. That being said, the next two set of inflation and job report figures before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be the ones which model the tightening expectations.

USD/MXN Levels to watch

The daily and weekly charts show that the technical outlook is bearish. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hint at the bears holding strong momentum while the pair trades below the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA).

Support levels: 16.60, 16.50, 16.30.
Resistance levels: 16.90 (20-day SMA), 17.00, 17.20.

USD/MXN

Overview
Today last price16.6785
Today Daily Change-0.1939
Today Daily Change %-1.15
Today daily open16.8724
 
Trends
Daily SMA2016.9381
Daily SMA5017.2133
Daily SMA10017.6686
Daily SMA20018.403
 
Levels
Previous Daily High16.9084
Previous Daily Low16.7037
Previous Weekly High17.0512
Previous Weekly Low16.6924
Previous Monthly High17.7286
Previous Monthly Low17.0243
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%16.8302
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%16.7819
Daily Pivot Point S116.748
Daily Pivot Point S216.6235
Daily Pivot Point S316.5433
Daily Pivot Point R116.9527
Daily Pivot Point R217.0329
Daily Pivot Point R317.1573

Author

Patricio Martín

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

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