USD/JPY: Will 155 break? – OCBC

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

USD/JPY continued to trade near recent highs. Opposing forces of fiscal concerns, delayed BOJ policy normalisation, risk sentiments and intervention risks should continue to drive the pair. USD/JPY last seen at 154.75 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Two-way trades are quite likely

"Last week, PM Takaichi signalled her intent to ramp up the active use of fiscal policy to power economic growth by dropping an annual budget-balancing goal. She said that the government’s long-held target of achieving a primary balance surplus will no longer be reviewed on a single-year basis. She made mention of multi-year budgets and also favour net debt to GDP."

"This may imply that government can issue bonds with greater ease, to finance bigger fiscal spending targeted to boost growth. Risk of heavier fiscal burden amid rise in debt servicing cost and worries of lack of fiscal discipline can undermine JPY in the interim."

"Daily momentum and RSI indicators are flat for now. 2-way trades likely. Resistance at 155.10, 156 levels. Support at 153.20 (21 DMA), 151.60 (61.8% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low)."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD gains traction near 0.7100 as the post-Fed USD rally pauses

AUD/USD finds fresh buyers and retakes 0.7100 in the Asian session on Thursday as the US Dollar pauses its hawkish Fed-inspired rally to its highest level since late July. However, RBA rate-hike bets and hopes for US-Iran diplomatic efforts lift risk sentiment and support the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar and the major.

USD/JPY reverses a dip below 156.00 as focus shifts to BoJ

USD/JPY is reversing a brief dip below 156.00 in the Asian session on Thursday, looking to snap a three-day winning streak to a nearly two-week top set the previous day. The US Dollar pauses following the post-Fed rally to seven-week highs, while a more hawkish repricing of the BoJ's policy normalization path supports the Japanese Yen. This keeps the pair's upside limited, with the focus now shifting to the BoJ policy decision due on Friday.

Gold pops to weekly highs near $4,400

Gold climbs sharply and clinches fresh weekly peaks around the $4,480 zone per troy ounce on Thursday. The precious metal’s bounce leaves behind three daily declines in a row and follows the marked retracement in the US Dollar as well as another negative performance of crude oil prices.

Ripple, Cardano, Dogecoin: Downside risk looms amid market uncertainties

Top altcoins, including Ripple (XRP), Cardano (ADA), and Dogecoin (DOGE), face imminent downside risk as prevailing upside momentum recedes toward neutral.

The Fed hawkishly hiked rates

The Fed proceeded with its first rate hike since 2023, as was widely expected. It should be noted that the bank hiked rates against US President Trump’s wishes. It’s characteristic that Fed Chair Warsh stated that 'Inflation is too high and has been for too long’, signalling his hawkish intentions.

How Japan became the World's Banker and why that era may be ending

Japan's ultra-low interest rates helped finance trillions of dollars in global investments for more than a decade, making the Japanese Yen one of the world’s cheapest sources of funding. With the Bank of Japan expected to tighten policy again this week, that advantage may be entering a new phase. While most major economies raised interest rates, Japan remained the world's outlier.