USD/JPY struggling near monthly lows

Having touched a fresh monthly low near mid-112.00s, the USD/JPY pair has managed to bounce off few pips and is currently hovering around 112.65 level amid subdued trading action on Monday.

In absence of any major economic drivers, less hawkish Fed continues to weigh on the greenback. In fact, the key US Dollar Index slipped below the key 100.00 psychological mark and dragged the pair to its lowest level since Feb. 28.

Moreover, mildly weaker investors' sentiment, further reaffirmed by sliding US treasury bond yields, also supported the Japanese Yen's safe-haven appeal and collaborated to weaker trading sentiment surrounding the major. 

Additional downslide, however, was limited amid holiday-thinned liquidity conditions, with Japanese markets closed on account of Vernal Equinox Day.

Later during the NY session, Fedspeak would take the spotlight and might provide fresh impetus for the pair's movement on Monday. 

Technical levels to watch

A follow through selling pressure below mid-112.00s has the potential to drag the pair towards 111.65-60 important support, with some intermediate support near the 112.00 handle.

On the upside, any recovery attempts might now confront immediate resistance at 100-day SMA near 113.00 round figure mark, which if cleared decisively is likely to trigger a short-covering rally towards 113.35-40 resistance, en-route 50-day SMA hurdle near 113.65 region.

1 Week
Avg Forecast 113.11
100.0%70.0%40.0%04050607080901000
  • 40% Bullish
  • 30% Bearish
  • 30% Sideways
Bias Bullish
1 Month
Avg Forecast 114.31
100.0%88.0%59.0%05560657075808590951000
  • 59% Bullish
  • 29% Bearish
  • 12% Sideways
Bias Bullish
1 Quarter
Avg Forecast 114.81
100.0%78.0%56.0%05560657075808590951000
  • 56% Bullish
  • 22% Bearish
  • 22% Sideways
Bias Bullish