According to the India Economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML), the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is seen cutting the benchmark policy rates by 25 basis points in February, despite inflation seen at 6.70% in December.
Key Quotes:
“After all, the 'busy' industrial season will end by March. The MoF should also try to support demand in the February 1 Budget by running a higher fiscal deficit of 3.8%.
We continue to highlight that rising real lending rates are hurting growth. While nominal MCLR has fallen 43bp, on RBI easing, real MCLR has gone up 120bp on falling core WPI inflation.”
FX Implications:
Amid rising odds of an RBI rate cut next month, the Indian rupee loses ground to now trade near 70.90 vs. the US dollar, at the time of writing.
The USD/INR cross hit fresh monthly lows of 70.768 earlier today, as the US dollar remained on the back foot across the board, in the wake of weaker US payrolls data released last Friday.
USD/INR Technical levels to consider:
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