USD/INR Price Analysis: Trades with negative bias below 83.00, lacks follow-through

USD/INR meets with a fresh supply on Friday and is pressured by a modest USD weakness.
The recent range-bound price action warrants some caution before placing directional bets.
A sustained strength beyond the 83.00 mark is needed to support prospects for further gains.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The USD/INR pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight solid rebound from the 82.60-82.55 area, or over a one-week low and meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices currently trade around the 82.75 region, down 0.15% for the day, though remain well within the striking distance of a more than six-month peak touched on Wednesday.

The downtick could be attributed to a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness and some technical selling after this week's failure to find acceptance above the 83.00 round-figure mark. Looking at the broader picture, the USD/INR pair has been oscillating in a familiar trading range over the past weeks or so. Against the backdrop of the recent rally from the 81.70 area, or the July swing low, this might still be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase.

Adding to this, technical indicators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in the positive territory and suggest that the path of least resistance for the USD/INR pair is to the upside. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained strength beyond the 83.00 mark before positioning for any further gains. Spot prices might then surpass the all-time peak, around the 83.40-83.45 region touched in October 2023, and aim to conquer the 84.00 mark.

On the flip side, a subsequent decline below the overnight swing low, around the 82.60-82.55 region, could attract fresh buyers near the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), around the 82.20 region. This, in turn, should help limit losses for the USD/INR pair near the 82.00 mark. The latter should act as a pivotal point, which if broken decisively might shift the bias in favour of bearish traders and pave the way for a further depreciating move.

The downward trajectory might then drag the USD/INR pair below the 81.75 region, or the July swing low, towards the next relevant support near the 81.50 zone. Spot prices could eventually drop to test sub-81.00 levels or the YTD low touched in January.

USD/INR daily chart

Key levels to watch

USD/INR

Overview
Today last price	82.7386
Today Daily Change	-0.1319
Today Daily Change %	-0.16
Today daily open	82.8705

Trends
Daily SMA20	82.3652
Daily SMA50	82.2731
Daily SMA100	82.216
Daily SMA200	82.1679

Levels
Previous Daily High	82.9232
Previous Daily Low	82.5854
Previous Weekly High	82.8996
Previous Weekly Low	82.2
Previous Monthly High	82.8334
Previous Monthly Low	81.6588
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	82.7144
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	82.7941
Daily Pivot Point S1	82.6629
Daily Pivot Point S2	82.4552
Daily Pivot Point S3	82.325
Daily Pivot Point R1	83.0007
Daily Pivot Point R2	83.1308
Daily Pivot Point R3	83.3385

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

AUD/USD flatlines near 0.6965 as less hawkish RBA counters USD weakness

AUD/USD holds steady above a two-week low, trading near 0.6965 in the Asian session on Wednesday as early midterm election results heighten political uncertainty and weigh heavily on the US Dollar. Moreover, reviving safe-haven demand triggers a fresh leg down in US bond yields, offsetting Fed hike bets and exerting additional pressure on the buck. However, a less hawkish RBA caps the Aussie.

USD/JPY declines below 158.00 as USD weakens on midterm election results

USD/JPY comes under heavy selling pressure on Wednesday, dropping below 158.00 during the Asian session as the US Dollar slumps to a one-month low amid heightened political uncertainty after early US midterm vote counts. Moreover, the prospect of gridlock in Washington drives safe-haven flows, triggering a fresh leg down in US bond yields and further weighing on the buck.

Gold continues scaling new weekly highs; eyes $4,050 as US sticks to elections-led losses

Gold builds on its strong intraday move up, hitting a series of new weekly tops, and climbing back close to the $4,050 level during the first half of the European session amid a broadly weaker US Dollar. Democrats’ wins in the House and Senate raise the prospect of gridlock in Washington. Moreover, heightened political uncertainty drove investors to safe-haven assets, exerting some downward pressure on US bond yields. This is seen weighing on the Greenback and supporting the precious metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP extend advance as US Dollar slides on Democrats' US midterm victory

Bitcoin trades above $78,000 on Wednesday as risk-on sentiment improves in the broader cryptocurrency market. Ethereum mirrors BTC’s recovery outlook, hovering above $2,300. Ripple similarly exchanges hands above $1.28, marking two consecutive days of gains.

ADP Employment Report expected to show slower job growth in October

The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute is due to release October’s private-sector employment report on Wednesday. The market consensus anticipates a moderate slowdown in job creation, with the ADP Employment Change expected to show 69K new private jobs in October, down from 90K in September.

The 2% inflation target came from a throwaway remark. It now moves trillions

The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal grew out of an off-the-cuff remark by a New Zealand politician in 1988. Bond investors still price long-term US debt as if 2% holds, so a change in how the Fed measures inflation would move markets.