|

USD/INR Price Analysis: Indian rupee bulls look to 200-DMA retest

  • USD/INR fades bounce off six-week low amid bearish MACD signals.
  • Key DMA confluence restricts short-term advances before monthly resistance line.
  • 61.8% Fibonacci retracement adds to the downside filters.

USD/INR consolidates the biggest daily gains in a month around 74.10 during early Wednesday.

The Indian rupee (INR) pair bounced off the 200-DMA the previous day but fades recovery below a convergence of the 100-DMA and 50-DMA of late.

Given the bearish MACD signals and the pair’s inability to surpass the key DMA resistance confluence, USD/INR prices are likely to remain pressured.

Hence, the 74.00 threshold seems likely the immediate support to watch before the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of August-October upside, around 73.95.

Should the quote drop below 73.95, the 200-DMA level of 73.83 will regain the market’s attention ahead of the mid-September lows close to 73.35.

Meanwhile, the 50% retracement near 74.25 guards the quote’s immediate upside ahead of the stated DMA confluence around 74.30.

In a case where USD/INR bulls cross the 74.30 key hurdle, 74.70 and a one-month-old resistance line near the 75.00 round figure may flash on their radar.

USD/INR: Daily chart

Trend: Further weakness expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price74.103
Today Daily Change-0.0124
Today Daily Change %-0.02%
Today daily open74.1154
 
Trends
Daily SMA2074.7848
Daily SMA5074.2868
Daily SMA10074.304
Daily SMA20073.8264
 
Levels
Previous Daily High74.1454
Previous Daily Low73.8515
Previous Weekly High75.1908
Previous Weekly Low74.174
Previous Monthly High75.651
Previous Monthly Low74.0821
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%74.0332
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%73.9638
Daily Pivot Point S173.9294
Daily Pivot Point S273.7435
Daily Pivot Point S373.6355
Daily Pivot Point R174.2234
Daily Pivot Point R274.3314
Daily Pivot Point R374.5173

Author

Anil Panchal

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

More from Anil Panchal
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD bounces toward 1.1750 as US Dollar loses strength

EUR/USD returned to the 1.1750 price zone in the American session on Friday, despite falling Wall Street, which indicates risk aversion. Trading conditions remain thin following the New Year holiday and ahead of the weekend, with the focus shifting to US employment and European data scheduled for next week.

GBP/USD nears 1.3500, holds within familiar levels

After testing 1.3400 on the last day of 2025, GBP/USD managed to stage a rebound. Nevertheless, the pair finds it difficult to gather momentum and trades with modest intraday gains at around 1.3490 as market participants remain in holiday mood.

Gold trims intraday gains, approaches $4,300

Gold retreated sharply from the $4,400  area and trades flat for the day in the $4,320 price zone. Choppy trading conditions exacerbated the intraday decline, although XAU/USD bearish case is out of the picture, considering growing expectations for a dovish Fed and persistent geopolitical tensions.

Breaking: US Trump speaks about Venezuelan President Maduro's capture

 United States (US) President Donald Trump gave a press conference at his residence in Mar-a-Lago. Trump confirmed the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife: “Maduro and his wife both will face US justice,” Trump said, adding the US will be running Venezuela until they can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).