USD/INR Price Analysis: Bounce from 3.5-month lows lacks conviction

USD/INR's daily chart shows bearish sentiment is quite strong.
The pair could reverse the recent recovery from 3.5-month lows.

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

USD/INR rose to 75.00 on Wednesday, having printed a 3.5-month low of 74.5280 on Monday.

The bounce lacks conviction, as suggested by the long upper wicks attached to daily candles representing price action seen on Tuesday and Wednesday, and could be short-lived.

Long upper wicks are formed when buyers fail to keep prices at session highs and are indicative of bearish sentiment or sell on the rise mentality.

In addition, the hourly chart relative strength index (RSI) is reporting a double top breakdown, a sign the recovery from multi-month lows has ended.

The pair could revisit Monday’s low of 74.5280. Acceptance below that level would imply a continuation of the sell-off from highs near 76.40 observed in June and expose the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) support, currently at 73.25.

A close above the 100-day SMA at 75.265 would invalidate the bearish setup.

Daily chart

Trend: Bearish

Technical levels

USD/INR

Overview
Today last price	74.9606
Today Daily Change	0.0592
Today Daily Change %	0.08
Today daily open	74.9014

Trends
Daily SMA20	75.5865
Daily SMA50	75.5989
Daily SMA100	75.2379
Daily SMA200	73.2457

Levels
Previous Daily High	75.0362
Previous Daily Low	74.8106
Previous Weekly High	75.645
Previous Weekly Low	74.605
Previous Monthly High	76.5076
Previous Monthly Low	74.9786
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	74.8967
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	74.95
Daily Pivot Point S1	74.7959
Daily Pivot Point S2	74.6904
Daily Pivot Point S3	74.5703
Daily Pivot Point R1	75.0215
Daily Pivot Point R2	75.1416
Daily Pivot Point R3	75.2471

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

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