USD/IDR: Bears await Bank Indonesia decision to extend downpour beneath 200-DMA


  • Repeated failures to cross 200-day SMA ahead of Thursday’s Bank Indonesia meeting.
  • Mixed data, global recession fears can push BI towards another no rate change decision.

Having failed to cross the 200-DMA, the USD/IDR pair remains on the back foot as it takes the rounds to 14,272 during early Wednesday. While today’s FOMC meeting can act as a major market moves, Thursday’s monetary policy decision by the Bank Indonesia (BI) will be closely observed for near-term trade direction.

Despite upside surprises by the Indonesian inflation and consumer confidence data, sluggish retail sales and GDP figures continue to favor no change in the central bank’s monetary policy offering 6.0% BI rate.

Pessimism surrounding the global trade outlook led by the US-China tussle also weighs on the Southeast Asian economy.

TD Securities holds a dovish view for the Indonesian economy while expecting no change in Thursday’s monetary policy meeting. It says:

BI is edging towards a rate cut amid low inflation and slowing activity, but will likely want to see further signs of IDR stability before pulling the trigger to begin reversing the 175bp of hikes implemented in 2018.

The country’s Finance Minister, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, recently cited fears of global growth due to trade wars to support chances favoring the easy monetary policy from the BI.

On the other hand, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is also not expected to alter its monetary policy but may have a higher market impact as trades will have the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference and quarterly economic forecast to follow.

Technical Analysis

Unless breaking 200-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 14,435, the quote continues to signal another visit to 14,150 and 14,000 ahead of aiming to visit the April month bottom around 13,970.

Meanwhile, 21-day SMA can limit immediate upside at 14,307 ahead of highlighting 14,435. Should buyers manage to cross the key SMA resistance, 14,550, 14,620 and 14,662 might become their favorites.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

Latest Forex News


Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

Gold fades upside momentum towards $1,850 amid mixed catalysts

Gold prices ease from $1,842.36 as risk-on dwindles. The yellow metal rose to the nine-day high the previous day as the US dollar weakness, coupled with the market optimism, favored the bulls.

Gold news

AUD/USD ignores weak Aussie retail sales data, trades near 0.7440

AUD/USD trades near 0.7430, representing a 0.84% weekly gain. The bearish US dollar sentiment helps the AUD/USD pair shrug off the weaker-than-expected Aussie macro data released soon before press time and consolidate near 0.7440

AUD/USD News

USD/JPY: Bearish bias across Monthly, Weekly charts

USD/JPY trapped between daily support and resistance against bearish backdrop. Yen is under pressure across the longer-term time frames and is trending within a weekly channel to the downside.

USD/JPY News

WTI bulls ignore downbeat comments from Russia’s Novak, eye $46.00

WTI wavers near the upper end of one-week-old bullish flag. The black gold remains positive on a daily basis while taking rounds to the November month’s high, also the highest since March. Risk-on mood, US dollar weakness favor the commodities, US employment data awaited.

Oil News

Extra week of Black Friday!

Learn to trade with the best! Don't miss the most experienced traders and speakers in FXStreet Premium webinars. Also if you are a Premium member you can get real-time FXS Signals and receive daily market analysis with the best forex insights!

More info

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures