USD: Fed minutes support cautious upside – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke notes that EUR/USD slipped below 1.18 as markets interpreted the January Fed minutes as slightly more hawkish, helped by stronger US labour data. She stresses that a March rate cut is now ruled out and fewer than two cuts are priced for 2026. Stronger PCE and Q4 GDP data could give the Dollar further support if they beat expectations.

Hawkish nuance lifts US currency

"This is certainly a matter of interpretation, especially against the backdrop of recent better-than-expected US labor market data."

"Several participants indicated that they would have supported a two-sided description of the Committee's future interest rate decisions, reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation remains at above-target levels."

"The fact is that an interest rate cut in March is off the table and the market is not even fully pricing in two interest rate cuts this year."

"Tomorrow's US figures on the PCE index and Q4 GDP growth could give the dollar additional momentum against the backdrop of the Fed minutes if they exceed expectations."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD remains on the back foot near 1.1750

EUR/USD is coming under renewed pressure, sliding towards multi-week lows in the mid-1.1700s on Thursday. The move lower reflects another strong session for the US Dollar, with the Greenback drawing fresh support from a batch of firm US data that reinforced its underlying bid.

GBP/USD drops further, hovers around 1.3460

GBP/USD is sliding in tandem with its risk-sensitive peers, drifting back towards the 1.3440 area, its lowest levels in around four weeks. The move reflects a firmer Greenback, supported by another round of solid US data, while a somewhat divided FOMC Minutes has added an extra layer of uncertainty around the Fed’s rate path, keeping Cable on the defensive.

Gold struggles to overcome $5,000

Gold is trading with humble gains on Thursday, hovering around the key $5,000 mark per troy ounce. The yellow metal remains underpinned by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, even as a stronger US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields across the curve limit the upside and keep price action relatively contained.

Ripple slips toward $1.40 despite SG-FORGE tapping protocol for EUR CoinVertible

XRP extends its decline, nearing $1.40 support, as risk appetite fades in the broader market. SG-FORGE’s EUR CoinVertible launches on the XRP Ledger, leveraging the blockchain’s scalability, speed, security, and decentralization.

Hawkish Fed minutes and a market finding its footing

It was green across the board for US Stock market indexes at the close on Wednesday, with most S&P 500 names ending higher, adding 38 points (0.6%) to 6,881 overall. At the GICS sector level, energy led gains, followed by technology and consumer discretionary, while utilities and real estate posted the largest losses.

Injective token surges over 13% following the approval of the mainnet upgrade proposal

Injective price rallies over 13% on Thursday after the network confirmed the approval of its IIP-619 proposal. The green light for the mainnet upgrade has boosted traders’ sentiment, as the upgrade aims to scale Injective’s real-time Ethereum Virtual Machine architecture and enhance its capabilities to support next-generation payments.