The May 29 presidential election in Colombia represents a risk to the Colombian peso, according to analysts at CIBC. They forecast USD/COP at 4200 by the end of the first quarter and at 4100 by mid-year.
“Banrep increased the overnight rate by 100 bps to 4.00%, against market consensus and our forecast for a 75bps increase. Banrep left the door open for similar rate increases in the short term as inflationary pressures remained in place and both core and headline inflation are above target.”
“We expect Banrep to increase the overnight rate by another 100bps in March and we revised our terminal rate forecast for Q3 to 7.50% (previously 7.25%).”
“Looking at USD/COP, although we recognize that the global supply shock and recent upside surprises to headline inflation suggest a front-loading of the tightening cycle, current political dynamics should prevent a sustained appreciation of the COP for most of H1.”
“The 2022 legislative and presidential election cycle is marked by a clear move to the left in the region, while locally, the protests at the end of 2019 and in early 2021 have supported the increase in popularity of leftist candidates (…) current local and regional trends suggest a much greater representation of the left in the next four years, adding another layer of risk ahead of the May 29 presidential election.”
“We anticipate USD/COP moves that are similar to, if not greater than, those experienced in Chile and Peru in 2021, bringing USD/COP above its historical highs before the end of Q1. Hence, we maintain our long.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.