USD/CNH: Chance to rise above 7.1900 – UOB Group

There is a chance for US Dollar (USD) to rise above 7.1900 against Chinese Yuan (CNH), but it might not be able to maintain a foothold above this level. In the longer run, increasing momentum suggests USD may rise, but it is too early to expect 7.2000 to come into view, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Increasing momentum suggests USD may rise

24-HOUR VIEW: "USD rose to a high of 7.1850 on Monday. Yesterday (Tuesday), we indicated the following: 'The advance only resulted in a slight increase in upward momentum, and while there is room for USD to rise from here, any advance is likely limited to a test of 7.1850. A clear break above this level appears unlikely. Support levels are at 7.1700 and 7.1650.' Our view was not wrong, as after dipping to a low of 7.1697, USD rose to a high of 7.1855. Upward momentum continues to increase, albeit not significantly. Today, there is a chance for USD to rise above 7.1900, but it might not be able to maintain a foothold above this level. The major resistance at 7.2000 is unlikely to come into view. Today’s support levels are 7.1780 and 7.1730."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We indicated yesterday (08 Jul, spot at 7.1750) that 'the increase in momentum is not strong enough to suggest a sustained rise.' We pointed out that USD 'to continue to advance, USD must first close above 7.1850.' USD subsequently rose to 7.1855 before closing at 7.1814 (+0.03%). While USD did not close above 7.1850, the increasing upward momentum suggests USD may rise above 7.1900. Based on the current momentum, it is too early to expect 7.2000 to come into view. On the downside, if USD breaks below 7.1630 (‘strong support’ level was at 7.1600 yesterday), it would mean that USD is not ready to head higher."