USD/CHF moves above 0.8100 as US Dollar strengthens ahead of ISM PMI release
- USD/CHF rises as market sentiment turns cautious over the Federal Reserve’s independence.
- The Fed is expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut in September after weaker labor data.
- The CHF weakens on concerns over US tariffs affecting Swiss exports.
USD/CHF continues to gain ground for the second successive session, trading around 0.8110 during the European hours on Tuesday. The pair remains stronger as the US Dollar (USD) advances ahead of the release of US ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data due later in the day.
Risk aversion increased after US Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Adriana Kugler unexpectedly resigned on Monday. This has increased concerns about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence, as President Donald Trump now has an earlier-than-expected opportunity to shape the central bank's direction. Trump may nominate a replacement potentially more aligned with his calls for lower rates.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to reduce its interest rates in September, following weaker labor market data that has heightened concerns over the US economic outlook. Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly highlighted plenty of reasons to start looking at interest rate cuts. However, prevailing uncertainty makes it difficult for Fed officials to step into rate trimming too quickly. We can't wait to be certain there is no inflation persistence, need to make a call based on what's most likely, Daly added.
The USD/CHF pair also gained ground as the Swiss Franc (CHF) struggles amid growing concerns about the impact of US tariffs on Swiss exports. On August 1, the Trump administration announced a 39% tariff on Swiss goods, an increase from the 31% rate introduced in April, taking effect on August 7. The higher tariffs are likely to deepen disinflationary pressures in Switzerland. Meanwhile, inflation edged up slightly in July, rising to 0.2% year-on-year, above the forecast of 0.1%.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
Author
Akhtar Faruqui
FXStreet
Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.
