USD/CHF falls toward 0.8050 as traders expect multiple rate cuts by Fed
- USD/CHF struggles amid weaker US economic data reinforced the multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025.
- Fed Governor Michelle Bowman remarked that three interest rate cuts are likely to be appropriate this year.
- The Swiss precious metals association voiced concern about the possible impact of increased tariffs on gold exports to the US.
USD/CHF loses ground after two days of gains, trading around 0.8060 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair edges lower due to rising odds of the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivering multiple rate cuts by the end of this year. Tuesday’s US consumer inflation data, followed by the preliminary UK Q2 GDP print and the US Producer Price Index (PPI) due on Thursday, will be eyed to gain further impetus for the United States (US) economic conditions.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is retracing its recent gains and trading around 98.00 at the time of writing. The Greenback faces challenges as the soft US economic data prompted traders to price in the possibility of more interest rate cuts this year.
The higher Initial Jobless Claims and lower July’s Nonfarm Payrolls in the United States (US) have boosted the expectations for a Fed rate cut next month, with another possible move in December. Markets are now pricing in approximately 89% odds of a Fed rate cut at the September meeting, up from 80% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Moreover, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman stated on Saturday that three interest rate cuts are likely to be appropriate this year. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem noted on Friday that US economic activity remains stable but warned of potential risks ahead, noting the Fed could fall short on both its inflation and employment goals, with particular downside risks to jobs.
The downside of the USD/CHF pair could be limited as the Swiss Franc (CHF) may struggle due to the potential for domestic economic fallout from newly enacted 39% US tariffs. On Friday, the Swiss precious metals association expressed concern over the potential impact of higher tariffs on gold shipments to the United States. Additionally, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may still push interest rates further into negative territory, as annual inflation in Switzerland rose to 0.2% in July, above the 0.1% forecast but still close to zero.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
Author
Akhtar Faruqui
FXStreet
Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.
