|

USD/CAD Price Analysis: Retreats from 1.2745 hurdle, BOC Interest Rate Decision eyed

  • USD/CAD fades the previous day’s rebound from three-week low.
  • 50-SMA, one-week-old resistance line guards immediate upside.
  • 200-SMA, 50% Fibonacci retracement limit short-term declines ahead of 1.2560-55 area.
  • Firmer RSI, likely priced-in BOC rate-hike keep buyers hopeful to visit 1.2800 resistance.

USD/CAD eases from the weekly top to 1.2730 during the initial Asian session on Wednesday. In doing so, the Loonie pair steps back from the convergence of the 50-SMA and one-week-long descending trend line ahead of the key Bank of Canada (BOC) monetary policy meeting.

Although the BOC is up for the first rate-hike since 2017, the action has mostly been priced-in, which in turn favors the odds of the pair’s run-up should the forward guidance disappoint traders.

Read: Bank of Canada Rate Decision Preview: Hawkish hike to exacerbate the pain in USD/CAD

Technically, sustained trading beyond the key SMAs join firmer RSI and receding the bearish bias of MACD to hint at the pair’s further upside.

However, a clear break above the 1.2745 immediate hurdle becomes necessary for the USD/CAD bulls to aim for January’s high near 1.2800.

Should the quote rises past 1.2800, the latest swing top surrounding 1.2880 will be in focus.

On the contrary, pullback moves may initially aim for the 200-SMA level surrounding 1.2680 ahead of the 50% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of January-February upside, near 1.2660.

Following that, a six-week-old horizontal area near 1.2560-55 will lure the USD/CAD bears.

USD/CAD: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further upside expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price1.2724
Today Daily Change-0.0018
Today Daily Change %-0.14%
Today daily open1.2742
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.2721
Daily SMA501.2692
Daily SMA1001.264
Daily SMA2001.2565
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.275
Previous Daily Low1.2654
Previous Weekly High1.2878
Previous Weekly Low1.2682
Previous Monthly High1.2878
Previous Monthly Low1.2636
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.2717
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.2752
Daily Pivot Point S11.2621
Daily Pivot Point S21.2565
Daily Pivot Point S31.2471
Daily Pivot Point R11.2772
Daily Pivot Point R21.2866
Daily Pivot Point R31.2922

Author

Anil Panchal

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

More from Anil Panchal
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds steady above 1.1750 as traders await FOMC Minutes

The EUR/USD pair holds steady near 1.1770 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Traders continue to price in the prospect of further rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in 2026, following the 25-basis-point rate reduction delivered at the December meeting. The release of the Federal Open Market Committee Minutes will be in the spotlight later on Tuesday.

GBP/USD finds key support near 1.35 despite year-end grind

GBP/USD remains bolstered on the high end as markets grind through the last trading week of the year. Cable caught a bullish tilt to keep price action on the high side of the 1.3500 handle, though year-end holiday volumes are unlikely to see significant progress in either direction as 2025 draws to a close.

Gold holds above $4,300 after setting yet another record high

Spot Gold traded as high as $4,550 a troy ounce on Monday, fueled by persistent US Dollar weakness and a dismal mood. The XAU/USD pair was hit sharply by profit-taking during US trading hours and retreated towards $4,300, where buyers reappeared.

Ethereum: BitMine continues accumulation, begins staking ETH holdings

Ethereum treasury firm BitMine Immersion continued its ETH buying spree despite the seasonal holiday market slowdown. The company acquired 44,463 ETH last week, pushing its total holdings to 4.11 million ETH or 3.41% of Ethereum's circulating supply, according to a statement on Monday. That figure is over 50% lower than the amount it purchased the previous week.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).