USD/CAD Price Analysis: Refreshes two-week high ahead of US/Canada Employment data

USD/CAD has climbed to near 1.3380 as investors turn anxious ahead of US labor market data.
The Unemployment Rate in the US and Canada in December is seen at 3.8% and 5.9% respectively.
A decisive break above 23.6% Fibo retracement has improved appeal for the Loonie asset.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The USD/CAD pair prints a fresh two-week high near 1.3380 in the London session. The Loonie asset has witnessed a decent buying interest due to a sharp recovery in the US Dollar Index (DXY) amid cautious market mood ahead of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

As per the estimates, investors see 170K jobs being created in December against overall hiring of 199K in November. The Unemployment Rate is seen marginally higher at 3.8% vs. the former reading of 3.7%. The upbeat ADP Employment data, released on Thursday, has set a positive undertone for the labor growth.

An upbeat US NFP report is expected to trim prospects of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) from March, knowing that higher job growth will keep the last leg of underlying inflation sticky ahead.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar will also dance to the tunes of its domestic labor market data, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. Canada’s jobless rate is seen higher at 5.9% vs. the prior reading of 5.8%.

USD/CAD has climbed above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (plotted from 1 November 2023 high at 1.3900 to 27 December 2023 low at 1.3177) at 1.3350. Upward-sloping 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.3310 will continue to provide support to the US Dollar bulls.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the upside range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates that a bullish momentum has been triggered

Fresh buying would appear if the Loonie asset corrects marginally to the 23.6% Fibo retracement, which is around 1.3350. This will drive the asset towards December 18 high at 1.3410, followed by 38.2% Fibo retracement at 1.3453.

On the flip side, downside bias could stem if the pair drops below December 28 low of 1.3180. This would expose the asset to July 25 low near 1.3150, followed by July 13 low around 1.3193.

USD/CAD four-hour chart

USD/CAD

Overview
Today last price	1.3376
Today Daily Change	0.0023
Today Daily Change %	0.17
Today daily open	1.3353

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.3356
Daily SMA50	1.3561
Daily SMA100	1.3581
Daily SMA200	1.3483

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.3366
Previous Daily Low	1.3317
Previous Weekly High	1.3267
Previous Weekly Low	1.3178
Previous Monthly High	1.362
Previous Monthly Low	1.3178
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.3336
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.3347
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.3324
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.3296
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.3276
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.3373
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.3394
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.3422

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

AUD/USD bulls regain control above 0.6950 amid USD retreat

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the previous day's bounce from the weekly low, aiming for 0.7000 in Asia on Friday. The overnight pullback in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar below an 18-month high, which in turn offers some support to the pair. Meanwhile, hawkish RBA expectations also keep the major underpinned.

USD/JPY holds gains near 158.00 after Japan's weak Household Spending data

USD/JPY clings to gains around 158.00 after data showed on Friday that Japan's Household Spending fell for the ninth straight month, undermining the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains depressed as the overnight fall in US bond yields counters a hawkish Fed and geopolitical uncertainties, could cap any downside in the pair.

Gold retakes $4,200 amid pre-US CPI repositioning

Gold holds firm, revisiting $4,200 on Friday, extending recovery from two-month lows. US Dollar eases in tandem with Oil prices and Treasury yields, awaiting US sentiment data. The tide seems to be turning in favor of Gold, but the daily RSI is still bearish.

Ethereum activates Glamsterdam on Sepolia testnet: Why the price is falling anyway

Ethereum (ETH) has reached a key milestone in its next major network upgrade. The planned changes aim to improve Ethereum’s Layer 1 capacity and efficiency as network activity grows. The development comes as ETH retreats toward $2,500, highlighting the contrast between the network’s long-term technical progress and its short-term market weakness.

Canada Unemployment Rate expected to rise to 6.5% as US tariffs test labor market

Statistics Canada will release its September Labour Force Survey on Friday, with markets anticipating a modest recovery in employment following August's sharp decline. The report takes on particular importance as it will be the first to fully reflect the impact of new United States tariffs that took effect on August 22.

The UK 30-year gilt just hit a 1998 high. Is that good or bad for the British Pound?

The yield on the UK's 30-year government bond, or gilt, went through 6% on October 1 for the first time since early 1998, and on Monday the Pound was at its strongest against the Euro since June 2025. The gilt market's 28-year high is mostly someone else's. Since early May, the 30-year gilt yield has risen about 0.15 of a percentage point and the US 30-year about 0.7.