USD/CAD Price Analysis: Gauges cushion around 1.3700 as USD Index eyes more gains

USD/CAD is gauging an intermediate cushion near 1.3700 as USD Index looks firm.
A recovery in retail demand could force the BoC to resume hiking rates again.
The upside bias for the loonie asset is still solid as it is holding auction above the downward-sloping trendline from 1.3862.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The USD/CAD pair is looking for an intermediate cushion around 1.3700 in the early Tokyo session. The Loonie asset is juggling in a narrow range below 1.3740 following the footprints of the US Dollar index (DXY). The major slipped firmly on late Friday after the release of a jump in the Canadian Retail Sales data.

Monthly Canadian Retail Sales (Feb) jumped to 1.4%, higher than the consensus of 0.7%, and a flat performance was observed earlier. A recovery in retail demand could force the Bank of Canada (BoC) to resume hiking rates again.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) extended its recovery above 103.00 after S&P Global reported upbeat preliminary PMI (March) data. Manufacturing and Services PMI recovered to 49.3 and 53.8 respectively. Although a figure below 50.0 is still considered as a contraction for an economic indicator.

On an hourly scale, USD/CAD has corrected to near the demand zone placed in a narrow range of 1.3737-1.3746. The upside bias for the loonie asset is still solid as it is holding auction above the downward-sloping trendline plotted from March 10 high at 1.3862.

Also, the major is still above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3727, which indicates that the short-term upside bias has not faded yet.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has slipped below 60.00 but is likely to find support around 40.00 initially.

A confident recovery above March 14 high at 1.3773 would drive the major toward March 09 high at 1.3835 and the round-level resistance at 1.3900.

In an alternate scenario, a decisive breakdown of March 14 low at 1.3652 would drag the loonie asset toward March 07 low at 1.3600, followed by March 03 low at 1.3555.

USD/CAD hourly chart

USD/CAD

Overview
Today last price	1.3731
Today Daily Change	-0.0012
Today Daily Change %	-0.09
Today daily open	1.3743

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.3702
Daily SMA50	1.3529
Daily SMA100	1.3513
Daily SMA200	1.3359

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.3804
Previous Daily Low	1.3708
Previous Weekly High	1.3804
Previous Weekly Low	1.3631
Previous Monthly High	1.3666
Previous Monthly Low	1.3262
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.3767
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.3745
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.3699
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.3655
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.3602
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.3796
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.3849
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.3893

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

GBP/USD gathers strength to near 1.3300 on Burnham’s commitment to fiscal rules, NFP data loom

The GBP/USD pair gains traction to near 1.3290 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The British Pound strengthens against the US Dollar as the UK's likely next Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, has eased market concerns by pledging strict fiscal discipline. The US Nonfarm Payrolls data for June will take center stage later on Thursday.

EUR/USD nudges higher above 1.1350 on softer Fed stance, traders await US jobs data

The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains near 1.1380 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar edges lower against the Euro on less hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh. Traders will closely monitor the US jobs data for June later on Thursday.

Gold finds acceptance above $4,000, but US NFP holds the key

Gold is looking to build on its previous recovery beyond the $4,000 mark early Thursday, with the next big move hinging on the critical US Nonfarm Payrolls data release.

Bitcoin recovers on Kevin Warsh optimism – Jupiter, Morpho lead rally

The broader cryptocurrency market is easing downside pressure, with US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's optimism about US growth driving Bitcoin above $60,000. Short liquidations outpace long liquidations over the last 24 hours, suggesting renewed near-term buying strength, while Jupiter and Morpho lead gains during the same period.

A preview of NFP

The number is of much greater importance than usual as the Fed moves away from a forecasting framework and towards a current-data/rebuilding-credibility framework. While I have been pooh-poohing Warsh’s hawkish opener, I am also open to the idea that if he is serious about rebuilding credibility, he can find enough hawkish votes, and if June NFP is another hot one—July FOMC could be in play.

Just like Fed, is BoJ’s independence under threat?

When talking about central bank independence, most of the focus has been on Donald Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve. But a similar story, a quieter one for now, seems to be happening on the other side of the Pacific: Japan’s government may be testing the Bank of Japan’s independence.